TCU is a win away from completing the most impressive single-season turnaround in college football this century.
The Horned Frogs won a thriller in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, defeating No. 2 Michigan 51-45 in a game that featured 1,016 total yards of offense. The Wolverines (13-1) entered the game 7.5-point favorites, the lack of belief in the Horned Frogs that began in the regular season extending to the playoffs.
TCU (13-1) entered the season at +23000 to win the national championship. Sports Reference has data on preseason odds dating back to the 2003 season, and with a win on Monday, Jan. 9, 2023, the Horned Frogs will become the biggest underdog to win the national championship during that span.
By reaching the finals, TCU is in a class with 2013’s Auburn as the most unexpected team to reach college football’s championship game in the past 20 seasons. Those Tigers were +15000 to win the national title, per Sports Reference, and finished that year with a championship game loss to Florida State.
Both teams featured first-year head coaches authoring faster-than-anticipated turnarounds. Gus Malzahn took over for Gene Chizik at Auburn and improved the team’s record from 3-9 in 2012 to 12-2 in 2013.
TCU finished last season 5-7, moving on from long-time head coach Gary Patterson in the process. Sonny Dykes took over and similarly remade the Horned Frogs on the fly. They never were ranked a season ago and began 2022 unranked before reaching as high as No. 3 in the polls.
Dykes and the Horned Frogs will do something Auburn wasn’t able to do if they are able to win the championship two Mondays from now. Of the sport’s national champions since at least 2000, TCU would also be the first to win a title after finishing the season preceding its championship with a losing record.
2000 Oklahoma and 2002 Ohio State won national championships the years after finishing with 7-5 records, and 2003 LSU and 2010 Auburn won titles after 8-5 records in 2002 and 2009.
None of those four runs compare to what TCU is attempting to finish. The Horned Frogs aren’t a blue blood in the sport and they don’t have the pedigree of the teams they’re chasing. That hasn’t mattered.
The Horned Frogs are doing it their way. It’s worked out just fine so far.
