Should Kentucky and other six seeds in the NCAA Tournament be on upset alert?
Per DraftKings, No. 11 seeds have won 15 of 28 meetings against No. 6 seeds (54.7 percent) since 2014.
Besides the Wildcats, the other sixth seeds this year are Iowa State, TCU and Creighton, which is the best of the bunch, per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. BPI indicates the Bluejays are 14 points better than an average opponent per 70 possessions on a neutral court, 11th best in the country.
Kentucky is 15th in BPI (12.7 points) while its first-round opponent, Providence, is the top-ranked 11-seed in the tournament in BPI at 40th (10.1 points). In its tournament opener, Creighton will play N.C. State, ranked 45th in BPI (9.5 points).
Iowa State and TCU don’t know their opponents yet. Nevada and Arizona State will play in a First Four game for a chance to play the Horned Frogs.
Mississippi State and Pittsburgh play in another First Four game, with the winner advancing to face Iowa State.
The Bulldogs would appear the biggest threat to win multiple games among the four 11-seeds playing for a chance to reach the round of 64.
They allowed 61 points per game this season, tied for the 10th fewest this season. BPI ranks Mississippi State 44th in the country while Pittsburgh is 66th, Nevada is 71st and Arizona is 72nd.
Five Thirty Eight has Iowa State as the No. 6 seed most likely to lose, with a 58 percent chance to advance to the round of 32. Kentucky has a 66 percent chance of advancing.
In a first-round game last year, No. 2 seed Kentucky lost to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s in overtime, 85-79 — one of the worst losses in head coach John Calipari’s career and his first opening-round loss in the NCAA Tournament.
The No. 6 seed is the second lowest for a Calipari-coached Wildcats team. The good news for Wildcats fans is Kentucky outperformed expectations when it entered the 2014 tournament seeded eighth. That team reached the tournament finals before losing to Connecticut, 60-54.
It just goes to show that anything is possible in March. Everything, that is, except for all No. 6 seeds advancing past the first round.
