Global public debt is projected to surge to 117% of global GDP by 2027, according to a stark warning from Vítor Gaspar, Director of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department. The alarming forecast was made during the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor briefing, amid rising concerns over mounting geopolitical tensions and fragmented global trade.
Gaspar cautioned that worsening trade conflicts and geoeconomic fragmentation could push government borrowing to even more dangerous levels. “Fiscal risks are high,” he noted during the presentation, adding that current policies in many economies are on an unsustainable trajectory.
According to the IMF, global debt—both public and private—has already ballooned to over $235 trillion in 2023, driven by pandemic-era spending, elevated interest rates, and slower-than-expected economic recoveries in key markets. Advanced economies, in particular, face growing debt burdens tied to aging populations, health care obligations, and climate transition costs.
The IMF is urging governments to tighten fiscal policy in a gradual and growth-friendly manner, warning that delays in consolidating public finances could increase vulnerability to future shocks and limit the ability to respond to crises.
Gaspar’s 117% estimate assumes a continuation of current fiscal paths. However, the number could worsen considerably if global cooperation continues to erode, affecting investment, supply chains, and growth potential.
The IMF’s message: fiscal rebalancing is not just a domestic issue—it is central to safeguarding global financial stability.
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2025
For more insights, visit the IMF Fiscal Monitor page.
