The All-Star break is behind us. Now, it gets real for the NHL, with the March 3 trade deadline and playoff chases on the horizon. What will happen as the intensity ramps up? Here are my thoughts on some key storylines to watch.
The New York Islanders are a better team after acquiring Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks. But can the franchise make the Stanley Cup playoffs? And is GM Lou Lamoriello done making moves in advance of the trade deadline?
Five teams vying for wildcard Stanley Cup playoff bids currently sit within four points of one another. From the Washington Capitals at 60, down to the Panthers at 56, the Eastern Conference is about as tight as it gets. And the Islanders have scored the least among them by a decent margin.
So the two questions are very much tied together. And I think it’s going to take further surgery for the Islanders to have a chance at making the dance. New York needs a puck moving defenseman. Right now Noah Dobson is the only Islanders blueliner with more than 16 points. And I think the Islanders could use another weapon up front.
Horvat is going to make a positive impact on New York’s power play, which was the NHL’s second worst the day of the trade. And I think he’ll be a great fit alongside Mathew Barzal should the duo find themselves on a line together (they did Monday in their Horvat’s debut).
But let’s just say Lamoriello manages to get the pieces I just mentioned. Would it be enough to put his team over the hump and into the Stanley Cup playoffs?
I’m skeptical. Pittsburgh has games in hand. The Buffalo Sabres are surging. Even the Florida Panthers have shown life recently. Bottom line: it’s going to be very hard for the Islanders to have any upward mobility in a crowded Eastern Conference. And I think Lamoriello needs to keep the phone lines open.
Boston leads the NHL with 83 points and a record of 39-7-5. The B’s are an absolute juggernaut and it’s hard to find weakness at any position. Can Boston make it the entire 2022-23 season without tangible adversity?
Usually I’d say no chance. But with this team, I’m not so sure. In some ways, the Bruins already faced adversity when the team started the season without star forward Brad Marchand and blueliner Charlie McAvoy. Coming out of the gates hot seemed like a nearly impossible task for Boston, especially with a new head coach in Jim Montgomery.
Logical thinking said the Bruins were due for a setback. But Linus Ullmark has played at a level worthy of the Vezina Trophy. And the D-corps looks stout, thanks to last years’ addition of Hampus Lindholm. For me, the biggest unknown going into the 2022-23 season was David Krejci; he’s been outstanding since returning from his one-year sabbatical in Czechia’s top league.
I honestly think the Bruins might go the rest of the season without losing more than two games in a row again. From the goal crease out, they’re deep. And missing key players early didn’t seem to affect Boston.
But more than anything, there’s a sense of joy emanating from the Boston locker room. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve paused this year listening to a post-game interview from a Bruins player talking about team chemistry.
Boston is having fun again. The star players are producing. And it looks like they have the goaltending to make a serious run. Barring an onslaught of injuries, I think Boston puts up more over 120 points and cruises into the Stanley Cup playoffs brimming with confidence.
Seattle is first in the Pacific Division. Yet the overwhelming narrative is that the Kraken are still a few years away from being able to contend for the Stanley Cup. Is it goaltending? Lack of star power? Can Seattle surprise in the postseason?
I’ll admit, it took me a while to believe Seattle was for real. And even now, I have doubts. The Kraken have gotten progressively better defensively over the course of the 2022-23 season. But I still don’t see them as one of the NHL’s elite in terms of shutting down the opposition.
And yes, I do lump Martin Jones into that mix. I think he’s done a fantastic job for Seattle. No chance the 33-year old posts a 23-7-3 record without making some of those big, timely saves that my friends in broadcasting like to rave about.
But it’s been a long time since Jones featured in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And the eye test – along with advanced stats – haven’t always been in his favor. Jones sits 30th in moneypuck.com’s goals saved above expected rankings. That said, I’m rooting for him. Jones has reinvigorated his career and given Seattle stability in goal.
The most intriguing thing to me about the Kraken has been scoring depth. Seattle is ninth in goals for. And they’ve done it without a true superstar. Yeah, Andre Burakovsky has been really good. Matty Beniers looks like he will be a perennial All-Star. But who else is getting it done? Guys like Jared McCann and Vince Dunn, who are playing the best hockey of their careers.
Head coach Dave Hakstol hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves. Seattle is playing to an identity that’s tough to handle. And while I don’t believe the Kraken are true Stanley Cup contenders, the team is absolutely capable of going past the first round. Especially given how wide open the Pacific Division is. I’m turning into a believer.
St. Louis sits nine points back of the second wildcard slot in the Western Conference with only 31 games to play. Captain Ryan O’Reilly and sniper Vladimir Tarasenko are both pending UFAs, among others. GM Doug Armstrong has to blow up the Blues, right?
Oh yeah, it’s time. The Blues are dead in the water this season, and the team has valuable assets to move. GM Doug Armstrong has rarely been a seller, but he’s done it previously when the Blues were teetering on the brink of a Stanley Cup playoff spot.
Think back to 2017, when the Blues GM sent pending-UFA defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk to the Washington Capitals ahead of the deadline. That move eventually landed the Blues Zach Sanford and, in a roundabout way, Brayden Schenn.
Or 2018, when the Blues GM sent center Paul Stastny to the Winnipeg Jets. St. Louis received a conditional first-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, a conditional fourth-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, and a prospect. And the Blues were still in playoff contention! It was a shrewd move that took guts.
St. Louis missed the Stanley Cup playoffs by one point that season. But to me, both of the examples I just listed prove that Armstrong has a strong idea of what exactly his team is made of. And the Blues just haven’t been good enough this year. Defense is a major concern. And scoring has been a chore when the team isn’t on the rush.
O’Reilly? Trade him. Tarasenko? Move him if you can find a taker. Ivan Barbashev and Noel Acciari? If there are mid-round draft picks available, make it happen. Niko Mikkola? Go right ahead.
The point is that St. Louis is fast reaching a threshold where new blood is necessary. Not just ace offensive players Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas. Or a prospect like Jake Neighbours, who’s looking better with every recall. The Blues need cost-certain, homegrown talent to keep filtering into the entire lineup.
As it stands, St. Louis is without a second-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. That needs to be recouped. And adding another first-round selection – which O’Reilly is certainly worth – would be a boon for the organization.
Perennially good teams don’t often get the chance to bulk up at the trade deadline. But St. Louis has such an opportunity this year. And the Blues would be wise to cash in on it.
Always advance. Never retreat. Will the Vegas Golden Knights – despite playing close to .500 hockey for the better part of two months – stay true to their core slogan and be aggressive at the NHL trade deadline?
Before Golden Knights captain Mark Stone underwent back surgery – his second time under the knife in less than a calendar year – I was pretty sure Vegas wouldn’t be much of a factor at the deadline. Maybe a scoring winger or a shutdown defenseman. Which ironically would be very anti-Vegas given the aggressive course charted during the first six seasons of the franchise.
I thought this year would be when the Golden Knights finally stopped chasing shiny objects. But now, with Stone shelved indefinitely along with his $9.5 million cap hit, Vegas has room to add if they so desire. The question is: will they?
I think so. Because the Golden Knights simply aren’t wired for complacency. The team sits third in the Pacific Division. And the Stanley Cup playoffs are looming large for a team that has been tepid at best since American Thanksgiving.
Vegas has lost eight of the past 10 games. Scoring has dried up. The Golden Knights’ best players have gone missing from the scoresheet, including last year’s big splash, Jack Eichel. He has just one goal and one assist in his past 10 games. Even more concerning? His minus-12 rating during that span.
It’s not a matter of Vegas contending for the Stanley Cup this year. It’s a matter of making the playoffs at all. And I can’t imagine any world where it would be acceptable in Sin City for the team to miss the postseason again.
Yes, injuries have played a role. But the Golden Knights were short on quality wingers to start the season. And the situation has worsened with Stone out. He was the only Vegas player to have found chemistry with Eichel.
So who’s available that the Golden Knights might be interested in? Patrick Kane? Vladimir Tarasenko? Both are right-wingers and pending UFAs. Both are Stanley Cup Champions with sizable cap hits. And both can help fill the net.
I’m just throwing those names out there. But the point is that Vegas does have options. If the team wants to add, it can. But is it really the right thing to do? And even if the Golden Knights wanted to, would the feeling be mutual for their targets?
Think of it this way: if you’re Patrick Kane, do you want to leave the only team you ever played for – the Chicago Blackhawks – for a team like the Golden Knights that has been shockingly average over the past few months of the NHL season? He holds a full no-movement clause. Kane controls his own destiny. Would he go to a team that’s been spiralling?
I wouldn’t. Especially if there were better options. What if the Dallas Stars want Kane? To me, that’s a team that can win the Stanley Cup. How about the Rangers? Wouldn’t that be exciting seeing Artemi Panarin and Kane team up once again?
So how is Vegas going to pull off a big deal? I really don’t know. The Golden Knights desperately need high draft picks after trading away so many over the past couple of years. And the team’s prospect pool is very shallow. GM Kelly McCrimmon doesn’t have much currency.
But with the way things are negatively trending, I can’t see the Golden Knights opting to pick up a spare – yet effective – part like Blues forward Barbashev. He would be the smart, cost-effective addition. But when’s the last time Vegas played it safe?
Always advance. Never retreat. Vegas isn’t selling. Vegas is buying. And with Stone out, I think they try to swing big.
