The way-too-early odds to win Super Bowl LVIII

It should be no surprise the Chiefs enter the offseason as the favorites. The team has been to three Super Bowls in four years and are in great shape entering the offseason with draft capital and cap space. KC does have some important decisions to make, particularly at wideout, with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman entering free agency. Still, Patrick Mahomes proved after losing Tyreek Hill that he can manage with new weapons.

Buffalo fell short in the Divisional Round after a great regular season and faces some bigger questions now that they have to pay Josh Allen. The team could see some major turnover on defense, including free agents Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer, but the squad’s core is set to return.

Given the questions at quarterback, the 49ers’ status at the top of the NFC could surprise some. With Jimmy Garoppolo a free agent and Brock Purdy headed from major elbow surgery, Trey Lance will likely regain the starting quarterback job, and the terrific supporting cast led by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle remains. The team does have to address some potential free-agent losses, including Jimmie Ward and Samson Ebukam.

The check could come due after Philadelphia’s aggressive 2022 offseason, though they have the draft capital to build around Jalen Hurts. Still, the team probably doesn’t have enough cap space to retain all their prominent free agents in Miles Sanders, Isaac Seumalo, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, Robert Quinn, Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, T.J. Edwards, and James Bradberry. Any losses in that group could cause Nick Sirianni’s squad to take a step back in 2023.

There are challenges ahead for the Bengals roster as they prepare to sign Joe Burrow long-term. The secondary could be gutted with Eli Apple, Tre Flowers, Jessie Bates, and Vonn Bell set for free agency, and there is already speculation the team will move on from Joe Mixon or Tee Higgins to create cap space. Still, the Bengals look like perennial contenders with the combination of Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.

As usual, the Cowboys face some tough cap decisions, with key contributors like Dalton Schultz, Tony Pollard, Leighton Vander Esch, and Anthony Brown set for free agency. The possible renegotiation of Ezekiel Elliott’s contract would give the Cowboys some breathing room, and the blue-chip talent should remain with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons. Most consequential could be head coach Mike McCarthy’s decision to fire offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and call offensive plays himself.

Entering the offseason, no one is sure if the marriage between the Ravens and Lamar Jackson will continue. Baltimore is a clear contender if they’re able to keep Jackson around, and a new offensive coordinator could also have a positive impact. The team does need to get younger on both sides of the ball and could be set to move on from free-agent veterans like Jason Pierre-Paul, Kyle Fuller, Marcus Peters, and Justin Houston.

After an embarrassing playoff loss to the Jaguars, it was unclear if much-maligned head coach Brandon Staley would keep his job. He did stick, but the team made some major changes with their assistants. The most high-profile change is the hiring of former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, which should be music to the ears of Justin Herbert. Of course, the team still needs to contend with the rival Chiefs in the AFC West.

Doug Pederson‘s impact was felt earlier than expected, with the Jaguars winning the AFC South in his first season and Trevor Lawrence making steady progress. The team doesn’t have the cap space to make as many impactful moves this offseason, and there is some concern about retaining top free agents Marvin Jones, Evan Engram, and Arden Key. Still, another offseason under Pederson and a young roster that’s coming into its own puts the Jags arrow pointing upward.

Few teams were playing better than the Lions during the second half of the regular season, so they could be a trendy pick in 2023. Jared Goff seemed to refind his Super Bowl form under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and his host of weapons is outstanding. The team does need to improve on defense and face some free-agent questions led by touchdown leader Jamaal Williams.

The Jets have stated their offseason priority is finding a veteran quarterback. Their success in that endeavor should determine their Super Bowl odds entering training camp, but the team has a lot of attractive pieces elsewhere, led by Garrett Wilson, Quinnen Williams, and Sauce Gardner. Another rebuild of the offensive line will also be a priority, with Connor McGovern and George Fant headed for free agency.

While it was a lost year for the Rams after winning the Super Bowl, it looks like the core of that Super Bowl team will return. Sean McVay opted to keep coaching rather than retire, and the key trio of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald should be healthy entering next season. The team does face some major questions on the offensive line and secondary, however, with little cap space or draft capital to address them.

When healthy, there were few more exciting teams than the Dolphins. Unfortunately, multiple concussions for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa disrupted the team’s season and could cloud their future. The addition of acclaimed defensive coordinator Vic Fangio does give the squad another jolt, but a significant portion of the team’s supporting cast is set for free agency.

It was a disappointing season for the Packers to lose in Week 18 and miss the playoffs, and the questions about Aaron Rodgers‘ future are just as loud as they were last offseason. The franchise’s ability to retain Rodgers could determine their offseason direction, though the rest of the team’s core is under contract through next year.

Denver was arguably the most disappointing team in the 2022 season, and Russell Wilson‘s decline was a big reason. The addition of former Saints head coach Sean Payton could excite Vegas for a turnaround, though the Broncos have a lot working against them in the short term with minimal draft capital or cap space, along with the presence of the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West.

The return of Deshaun Watson late in 2022 didn’t go as anticipated, as the former star quarterback looked rusty after more than one year away from football. A full offseason with the team and the addition of defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz should lead to some optimism, though the Browns don’t have much in the way of cap space to improve the roster.

Dennis Allen’s first season leading the Saints was rocky, and the team still has major questions at quarterback after Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston struggled last season. The defense could also take a big hit, as defensive linemen Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Shy Tuttle are unrestricted free agents.

The Vikings managed to win the NFC North, though Vegas was skeptical after the team went 11-0 in one-score games and finished with a negative point differential. There’s no doubt the offense can work with star weapons like Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, but the defense likely needs to be revamped.

A coaching transition and years of poor drafting came back to bite the Raiders last year, and they’re now in a transition period with a new quarterback set to replace Derek Carr. Based on head coach Josh McDaniels’ last experience in a similar position in Denver, Raiders fans have reason to be nervous. The team has a major decision to make with free agent Josh Jacobs, and could even approach a full rebuild.

Few teams made a bigger jump in the 2022 season than the Giants, showing what a difference a competent coaching staff can make. Daniel Jones finally looks like an NFL starting quarterback, and the hope is that the team will surround him with more weapons. The team does have to figure out how to compensate Jones and fellow free agent Saquon Barkley while also improving the rest of the roster.

Mike Tomlin‘s 9-8 regular season record was one of his finest coaching performances, employing a rookie quarterback for much of the year and dealing with major defensive injuries. The team won’t have the rookie excuse next season, however, as Kenny Pickett looks to gain momentum with a solid core of young weapons. The defense could be headed for changes as Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley, Devin Bush, Cameron Sutton, and Terrell Edmunds potentially enter free agency.

The Panthers fell just short of winning the futile NFC South despite firing Matt Rhule midseason and struggling to find a starting quarterback. That speaks to the defensive talent in place. New head coach Frank Reich could get the offense on track if he can find a quarterback and improve the offensive line.

Washington fell just short of the playoffs with a disappointing fall late in the year, and they remain in search of a quarterback again after Carson Wentz had another disappointing season. The core offensive weapons remain strong, and the defensive line is elite even if pending free agent Da’Ron Payne departs. Working against head coach Ron Rivera is the excellent NFC East division, along with the pending sale of the franchise.

New England’s quiet 2022 offseason and inability to replace offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels with a real offensive mind played out how many expected. The team has brought back former coordinator Bill O’Brien to hopefully salvage Mac Jones, but it’s clear the team needs to build more talent around the young quarterback. Bill Belichick has major decisions to make with pending free agents Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Isaiah Wynn, and Jonathan Jones.

Seattle was a surprise playoff team despite moving on from Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, as they saw surprisingly positive contributions from Geno Smith and several rookies. It’s unclear if the team sees Smith as their long-term answer at quarterback, but there’s reason to be optimistic about the recent development of the squad under Pete Carroll.

There might not be a team with a more important offseason than the Bears, who have the No.1 overall draft choice and are flush with cap space. There are almost no certainties for this rebuilding roster, including the fate of quarterback Justin Fields. GM Ryan Poles has basically a clean slate to shape the organization’s future for years to come, but it would take something miraculous for the team to become Super Bowl contenders immediately.

The injury-plagued Titans were sitting pretty at 7-3 in the AFC South before losing seven consecutive games to miss the playoffs. New GM Ran Carthon has major decisions to make, led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The organization has stuck out on several recent drafts, though the defense has remained mostly stout under head coach Mike Vrabel.

The Bucs opened the offseason by firing most of their assistant coaches, and the retirement of Tom Brady provides more uncertainty for the team’s offseason. Still, Tampa Bay is only one year removed from being a top NFC contender, and much of the core from that run remains under contract. The Bucs have a chance to return to the playoffs if they can find a competent veteran quarterback, though the team does have some important free-agent decisions to make on defensive stars Jamel Dean and Lavonte David.

Head coach Arthur Smith could be entering a make-or-break year in his third season with Atlanta. It’s unclear who will start under center, and the defense has big shoes to fill following the retirement of coordinator Dean Pees. The good news is that the NFC South still appears wide open.

The Colts took a big step back in 2022, with their struggles at quarterback and questionable hiring of Jeff Saturday as head coach. The regression of the offensive line and defense remain huge concerns, though the return of star running back Jonathan Taylor from an ankle injury could help get the offense back on track. It’s difficult to find short-term hope for the franchise until they find stability under center.

The Cardinals enter a very difficult period this offseason. Franchise quarterback Kyler Murray is unlikely to be ready for the start of the 2023 season after knee surgery, and the team also has changes in the front office and coaching staff. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the new regime try to wipe the slate clean, trading DeAndre Hopkins and allowing veterans like Rodney Hudson, Justin Pugh, Kelvin Beachum, and A.J. Green to walk in free agency.

Houston can’t seem to do anything right, but maybe their fortunes have finally turned around after the home run hire of DeMeco Ryans as head coach. He will be in search of a starting quarterback to lead the franchise, but the 3-13-1 Texans also need to address several other roster holes.