EASA has published a new report on the state of science and knowledge on atmospheric icing in a climate change context, developed under the European Network on Impact of Climate Change on Aviation (EN-ICCA). The report examines what is currently known about atmospheric icing and considers how changing climatic conditions could affect this aviation-relevant weather hazard in the future.
Atmospheric icing, including icing caused by supercooled liquid droplets, ice crystals and mixed-phase conditions, can affect aircraft performance, engine reliability and flight safety. The report looks at the meteorological conditions that contribute to icing, the physical factors that influence its severity, and the vulnerability of different aircraft types and flight phases. It also reviews how the aviation sector currently manages icing risks through aircraft design and certification, operational procedures and weather forecasting.
A key finding is that, while forecasting capabilities have improved, important knowledge and data gaps remain. In particular, challenges persist in predicting icing severity and in-flight ice crystal conditions, while limitations in observations, model resolution and the representation of cloud microphysics can affect the ability to accurately assess icing conditions.
The report also considers the potential impact of climate change. Although evidence on future trends in atmospheric icing is still limited, preliminary research indicates that climate change could influence the frequency, altitude and severity of icing conditions. Further research and improved climatological datasets and modelling approaches are therefore needed to better understand how these hazards may evolve. The findings will help inform future work to strengthen the aviation sector’s understanding of atmospheric icing and its ability to adapt to changing weather hazards. The report recommends two strategic workstreams focused on improving icing indices and the data used for climatological studies, and on conducting climatological studies using reanalysis and climate model outputs.
The report is part of the wider work of EN-ICCA, EASA’s network bringing together expertise on the impacts of climate change on aviation.
