LONDON/SYDNEY – The global commodities landscape was jolted on Friday, January 9, 2026, as mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed they have entered preliminary discussions for a historic combination. If successful, the deal would create the world’s largest mining entity with a combined market capitalization of approximately $207 billion, leapfrogging current industry leader BHP Group.
The announcement marks a significant revival of a merger attempt that stalled in late 2024. Under the strict governance of the UK Takeover Code, Rio Tinto now faces a “put up or shut up” deadline of 5:00 PM on February 5, 2026, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or walk away for at least six months.
The Industrial Logic: A Scramble for Copper
The primary catalyst for this blockbuster negotiation is the intensifying global race for “strategic minerals” essential to the energy transition and AI infrastructure. While Rio Tinto remains the world’s dominant iron ore producer, its leadership is increasingly focused on diversifying into metals required for electrification.
- Copper Dominance: Glencore’s vast copper and cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo would instantly propel the merged group into the top tier of global copper producers.
- Pricing Momentum: The talks come as copper prices hit record highs, surpassing $13,000 per tonne this week due to supply shocks and surging demand for data center cooling systems.
- Synergies: Analysts suggest the merger could unlock significant operational efficiencies, combining Rio Tinto’s world-class mining engineering with Glencore’s unmatched global commodity trading and marketing arm.
Market Reaction: A Tale of Two Tickers
Equity markets responded with “asymmetric emotion” on Friday morning as the news broke. The divergent share prices reflect the complex “deal math” investors are currently parsing.
| Company | Share Price Movement (Jan 9) | Market Sentiment |
| Glencore (GLEN.L) | +8.4% | Investors see immediate value in an all-share premium. |
| Rio Tinto (RIO.L) | -2.2% | Skepticism over potential overpayment and “coal contagion.” |
The Critical Hurdle: The Coal Conundrum
The most significant obstacle to a deal is the future of Glencore’s massive thermal coal portfolio. Rio Tinto famously divested its final coal assets in 2018 to burnish its ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) credentials.
Absorbing Glencore’s 26 coal mines could force ESG-focused institutional funds to divest from the new entity. However, insiders suggest that Rio Tinto’s new leadership may be open to a “spin-and-merge” structure, where Glencore’s coal assets are separated into a standalone unit before the transaction is finalized.
Regulatory and Geopolitical Gauntlets
A merger of this magnitude would trigger intense scrutiny from antitrust regulators in at least eight jurisdictions, including:
- China: As the world’s largest consumer of iron ore and copper, Beijing’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) will likely demand significant asset disposals to prevent a monopoly on supply.
- Australia: The ACCC will examine the combined entity’s control over vital rail and port infrastructure in Western Australia and Queensland.
“Investors are cautious because big mining mergers have a history of being dilutive at the top of the cycle,” noted one chief investment officer. “But with the race for copper becoming a matter of national security for many economies, the pressure to gain scale has never been higher.”
Rio Tinto Hq, Perth AU, Picture by Gnangarra
