France’s current trajectory toward societal fragmentation is the culmination of decades of misguided policies regarding immigration from Muslim-majority countries.
This influx, unaccompanied by effective integration and assimilation measures, has deeply influenced French society. Today, over 20% of newborns bear Arabic-Muslim names, reflecting a strong assertion of cultural identity. More alarmingly, polls indicate that 28% of Muslims in France envision the country becoming a Muslim state, a sentiment that rises to 50% among the youth – a clear sign of entrenched separatism.
Boosted by the October 7 events, which have been catalysts for the Islamists’ global will to conquer the West, the Islamist activists, helped by their far-left allies, successfully instrumentalized the Palestinian cause to mobilize Muslim masses and other left-behind groups into a cultural war against liberal democracy and Judeo-Christian Europe.
On the other side of the spectrum, native French citizens, predominantly from the far-right, perceive immigrants as drivers of their economic and cultural marginalization, intensifying societal divisions. This stark polarization manifested in yesterday’s parliamentary elections, where the far-left secured up to 35% of the seats and the far-right up to 26%, marginalizing President Emmanuel Macron‘s centrist factions to just 31%.
When gathered together, the far-right on one side and the far-left associated with their Islamist factions pose a formidable challenge to France’s democratic fabric, claiming some 70% of the votes and 60% of the seats. This situation has led to two distinct Frances that do not understand, mix, or communicate with each other.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron gestures on the first day of the G7 summit, in Savelletri, Italy, June 13, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/YARA NARDI)
Historically, two governance models emerge for managing divergent populations: imperial suppression and republican integration. Fearing the rampant Islamization that is taking place across Europe and facing personal, economic, and cultural insecurity because of it, many native French citizens are appealing to far-right governance that recalls the imperial model, where an authoritarian central power prevents different populations from conflicting.
France’s political turmoil
France, grappling with internal strife reminiscent of Lebanon’s sectarian divisions, faces a critical crossroads. The Lebanese model, once touted as a beacon of multi-ethnic harmony, disintegrated into a devastating civil war – a cautionary tale France risks repeating.
Post-election scenarios paint a bleak picture, particularly concerning for Jews and Israel. President Macron’s pursuit of stopping the non-democratic far-right at any cost, even aligning with the non-democratic far-left, underscores the political landscape’s volatility.
A potential coalition between President Macron’s centrists and the far-left anti-Zionist party “La France Insoumise,” led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, could lead to profound implications. This coalition might endorse a pro-Palestinian stance, advocating for Palestinian state recognition, condemning Israel for war crimes, and instituting anti-Israeli measures such as the boycott of Israel at the Eurosatory exhibition – the most significant victory for BDS in the West.
This will exacerbate societal divisions and isolate the Jewish community. In his pursuit of political survival, President Macron, swayed by numbers, may be tempted to join the Islamic-leftist alliance, potentially jeopardizing the security and dignity of French Jews.
Economically, such a coalition faces daunting challenges, with unsustainable spending and looming deficits threatening stability. Political gridlock and social unrest could precipitate France’s descent into chaos, echoing Lebanon’s tragic trajectory.
In this volatile landscape, French Jews find themselves increasingly vulnerable, caught amidst escalating societal tensions. France’s future now teeters between upholding its foundational values or succumbing to irreversible fragmentation. President Macron’s ominous warnings about potential civil conflict underscore the gravity of the current situation.
Dr. Dov Maimon is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and coordinates the Institute’s activities in Europe.
