West Africa Faces Deepening Crisis as Jihadist Influence Spreads
Al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has emerged as West Africa’s most powerful insurgent force, commanding up to 6,000 fighters. Regional counterinsurgency strategies are inadvertently aiding its expansion, as security force abuses allow JNIM to claim moral legitimacy. Alongside Islamic State-Sahel Province, JNIM has entrenched the region as a global jihadist hotspot. Burkina Faso remains the most terrorism-affected country globally, with Niger recording the highest rise in terrorism deaths. The group’s presence is now encroaching on previously stable nations, including Ghana and Senegal.
Mali and Nigeria Suffer Intensified Militant Violence
Malian forces have abandoned strategic bases after sustained JNIM assaults, including a deadly attack in Boulkessi. In Nigeria, Boko Haram abducted Catholic priest Alphonsus Afina and others, highlighting persistent insecurity in Borno State.
Sudan Conflict Escalates Amid Civilian Push for Peace
In Sudan, the RSF and SPLM-N have captured Um Dehilib in South Kordofan, with reports of rising civilian abuses. Civil society leaders, including ex-PM Abdalla Hamdok, have urged for a political resolution and warned against legitimizing military-led governance. Humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, with civil infrastructure and health services under severe threat.
South Sudan: MSF Withdraws After Violent Attacks on Healthcare
Médecins Sans Frontières has closed its hospital and ended support to 13 facilities in Ulang County, Upper Nile State, after looting and security threats. Over 150,000 people are left without essential care, reflecting broader instability and humanitarian challenges in South Sudan.
Russia Increases Military and Diplomatic Footprint Across Africa
The Kremlin is expanding security ties and military aid across Africa via its Africa Corps, successor to Wagner. Despite sanctions, Russia has shipped advanced weaponry to West Africa, bolstering its influence in conflict zones and overtaking Wagner’s role in Mali. This comes amid a broader contest for African alliances involving the West, China, and the Gulf.
Gulf States Deepen Investments and Political Ties
The UAE and Qatar are ramping up African investments, particularly in Ghana, Tanzania, and the DRC, with new economic zones, mining ventures, and infrastructure projects. Gulf investment now rivals or exceeds that of traditional Western powers.
Democratic Regression and Press Suppression in Multiple States
In Zambia, a court blocked a documentary critical of Chinese business practices, reflecting ongoing constraints on press freedom. In Kenya, protests erupted following the suspicious death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody, raising concerns over police brutality and shrinking civic space.
Political Tensions Rise in Ivory Coast
Former Trade Minister Jean-Louis Billon has declared his candidacy for the October presidential elections, criticizing party handling of opposition leader Tidjane Thiam’s disqualification. The development signals growing fragmentation within the Ivorian opposition.
Prepared for policymakers, analysts, and diplomatic missions engaging with African continental affairs. For in-depth regional analyses or briefings on specific countries, contact your regional intelligence or foreign affairs liaison.
