SANTA CLARA — Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) saw its market value shrink by approximately $31 billion on Friday, as shares cratered more than 12% following a fourth-quarter earnings report that coupled a headline net loss with a cautious forecast for early 2026. While the Silicon Valley stalwart managed to beat analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines, a combination of severe supply chain constraints and anemic guidance for the first quarter spooked investors who had been betting on a rapid turnaround.
The sell-off marks a sharp correction for a stock that had surged nearly 50% in January alone, fueled by high-profile investments from Nvidia, SoftBank, and the U.S. Government.
The Numbers: A Mixed Bag in the Fourth Quarter
For the quarter ending December 27, 2025, Intel reported revenue of $13.7 billion, down 4% year-over-year but slightly ahead of the $13.4 billion Wall Street consensus. However, the company’s GAAP bottom line remained in the red, posting a net loss of $600 million ($0.12 per share), widening from a $100 million loss in the prior year.
On an adjusted (non-GAAP) basis, Intel reported earnings of $0.15 per share, surpassing the $0.08 analysts expected. Despite this, the market’s focus shifted immediately to the “supply floor” issues plaguing the chipmaker.
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Supply Snarls Amid AI Demand
The central tension in Intel’s current narrative is its inability to meet a “historic surge” in demand for traditional server chips that support AI infrastructure. CEO Lip-Bu Tan acknowledged that despite running factories at maximum capacity, the company was “caught off guard” by the velocity of the server market’s recovery.
SegmentQ4 RevenueChange (YoY)Notes
Client Computing (CCG)$8.2 Billion-7%Weakness in PC market; memory price spikes.
Data Center & AI (DCAI)$4.7 Billion+9%Driven by Xeon 6; demand exceeding supply.
Intel Foundry$4.5 Billion+4%High-volume 18A ramp-up underway.
The company also flagged a spike in memory chip prices as a headwind for its newly launched “Panther Lake” PC processors, which were intended to reclaim market share from rival AMD.
The Dour Outlook
What ultimately triggered the double-digit slide was Intel’s guidance for Q1 2026. The company expects revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with the midpoint falling well below the $12.5 billion analyst forecast. More concerning for investors was the projection of flat non-GAAP earnings ($0.00) for the upcoming quarter, suggesting that the cost of scaling its next-generation 18A process node is weighing heavily on margins.
The Long Game: Foundry and Funding
Despite the immediate market reaction, Intel’s leadership remains tethered to a 2030 vision of becoming the world’s second-largest foundry. CFO David Zinsner assured analysts that supply conditions would be at their “lowest level” in Q1 before improving throughout the rest of 2026.
The administration’s 10% equity stake in the company and Nvidia’s recent $5 billion investment provide a significant capital cushion, but the road to “sustainable profitability” remains blocked by manufacturing yields and the sheer speed of the AI transition.
Intel HQ in Santa Clara, CA Picture by Sixflashphoto
