The college football world has grudgingly come to respect the TCU Horned Frogs, but oddsmakers don’t.
Per Oddschecker, TCU is a 13-point underdog in next Monday’s College Football Playoff championship game against Georgia. Since the advent of the BCS title game in 1998, no team has been as big an underdog in a title game.
Per ABC News, the previous largest opening point spread in a championship game was in 2002, when the Miami Hurricanes opened as 12-point favorites against Ohio State. The Buckeyes won that game in double overtime, 31-24. As Sports Illustrated noted, the line closed with the Hurricanes favored by 11 points.
In 2013, the spread closed with Florida State as 12-point favorites against Auburn. In that case, the Seminoles won but failed to cover in a 34-31 game. That was the last time a championship game featured a double-digit point spread.
Advanced statistics show why sportsbooks are bullish on Georgia’s chances of winning back-to-back titles. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a metric that evaluates how much a team would be favored on a neutral field, the Bulldogs are first with an expected margin of 28.2 points. TCU, by contrast, ranks 10th with a 16.8-point margin.
That’s a difference of 11.4 points, which would appear to mean oddsmakers are selling TCU short.
Granted, the Horned Frogs won’t feel any better losing by 11 points instead of 13, but there’s a reason for the team to be optimistic they won’t lose at all. Michigan — TCU’s most recent opponent — ranks fourth in ESPN’s FPI with an expected point margin of 23.9 points. That didn’t stop the Horned Frogs from pulling off the 51-45 upset of the Wolverines on Saturday.
Georgia, meanwhile, played Ohio State — third in FPI — and failed to cover in a 42-41 win.
TCU (13-1) likely has a better shot at defeating Georgia (14-0) than oddsmakers are giving it. The Bulldogs’ defense — long seen as the strength of the program — has allowed 71 points and 1,016 yards against LSU and Ohio State in its past two games.
The Horned Frogs benefited from questionable officiating against Michigan, but the defense forced three turnovers, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. Georgia lost the turnover battle against Ohio State, 1-0.
A loss for TCU is expected. A Horned Frogs win would be monumental.
