In the wake of the final round of France’s local elections, we asked political pundit Frédéric Sawicki what the mayoral vote tells us about the political future of the two main contenders – National rally (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI)?
The Conversation: What was the outcome of France’s 2026 mayoral elections?
Frédéric Sawicki: Let’s start by recalling that, in 9 out of 10 municipalities, the elections were conclusive right from the first round. The second round mainly concerned urban France. In one in two cities, at least three lists were running against each other, confirming the tripolarisation of the political arena. Overall, political stability dominates because, unlike in 2008 or 2014, these mayoral elections were not an opportunity to sanction a majority or a government, due to a massive lack of lists of candidates representing the “presidential majority”.
Consequently, the few shifts from one camp to another are often explained by local concerns. If the Parti Socialiste (PS), France’s centre-left establishment, wins Saint-Étienne, it may well have something to do with the sex tape scandal surrounding the outgoing mayor. And vice versa in Brest in Brittany where the PS lost, which the ailing reputation of the outgoing mayor who had been in office since 2001, no doubt had a hand in. There are multiple cases of this.
We also note a certain number of “sociological constants”. France’s largest cities always vote massively to the left. In cities with tourist economies, a strong presence of independent professions, small employers, retailers, military-related populations (in Toulon, for example), or well-off retirees (Nice, Menton or Cagnes-sur-Mer), the vote is strongly right or far-right leaning.
On the whole, we noticed as many swings from the right to the left and vice versa, as movements within each camp: socialist or communist cities became LFI territory (Saint-Denis, Vénissieux), “green party” cities shifted towards the centre left (Strasbourg or Poitiers). On the other end of the spectrum, some right-wing or centre right cities shifted to the far right or to its allies, for example, as was the case in Nice with Eric Ciotti.
The slides from left to right were few and far between and were balanced with slides in the opposite direction. Over the municipalities of more than 50,000 inhabitants, the left and the ecologists lost Bordeaux, Clermont-Ferrand, Brest, Avignon, Besançon, Poitiers, Cherbourg, but won Saint-Étienne, Nîmes, Amiens, Roubaix, Aubervilliers and Pau.
RN’s wins in smaller towns were quite a result…
F.S.: One of the new phenomena to come out of the vote is the solid bolstering of hard right party National Rally’s “mayoral anchorage”. In 2020, the RN claimed only 17 cities, including seven with more than 20,000 inhabitants. This time, it won 60. Toulon or Nîmes were, without doubt, huge losses for RN, but they managed to win over many medium-sized cities, such as Carpentras, La Seyne-sur-Mer, La Flèche, Vierzon, Montargis, Liévin… RN strongholds are primarily located in the former mining Pas-de-Calais area, the Côte d’Azur, and also in Occitania (Agde, Castres, Carcassonne, Montauban).
The RN has particularly anchored its presence in the cities it conquered in 2014 and 2020; strengthening its credibility is essential for the RN ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.
Did LFI – the radical left party come out of these local elections any stronger?
F.S: LFI’s breakthrough became apparent as it won over several cities with more than 30,000 inhabitants – Saint-Denis, Roubaix, Saint-Paul and Le Tampon (France’s overseas territory – Island of La Réunion), Vénissieux, Vaux-en-Velin, La Courneuve, Creil, which is far from insignificant considering they started from scratch. However, this breakthrough must be put into context.
France’s radical left suffered losses in situations where they had taken the lead from the left (in Toulouse or Limoges). The party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon failed to reclaim towns from the right, with the exception of Roubaix.
LFI specifically poised itself as an essential partner, with the threat of bringing down the centre-left PS if no alliance was formed. However, when the socialists and allies refused the merger, they were rarely defeated. LFI therefore failed to demonstrate its ability to hit hard – the example of Paris was emblematic, but Rennes and Montpellier are other fine examples.
Finally, in the context of alliances with the environmentalists, in particular, we note LFI losses in cities such as Strasbourg, Poitiers, Besançon. When the alliances made it possible to win (Grenoble, Lyon, Tours), LFI will not be represented at executive level because the mergers were only a “technicality”. The LFI representatives therefore remain confined to the role of opponent, which doesn’t give the party the ability to govern, and appearing as a party “purely of the opposition” poses a real problem for obtaining supreme (presidential) power in 2027.
We noticed that the centre and the right strengthened their alliance during the mayoral runoffs…
F.S.: There were a lot of lists where the centre right, Horizons, MoDem and Renaissance joint forces with conservative candidates, Union des démocrates et indépendants (UDI) or Les Républicains (LR), from the first round. In the second round, many alliances were formed. This municipal election is therefore part of the continuity of the parliamentary alliance between the central block and the right since 2022 and especially since 2024, and foreshadows what could happen in the presidential election. After the second round, we heard calls for LR, Horizons and the Macronists to have a common arrangement and one candidate. With his win in Le Havre, Edouard Philippe delivered a speech aimed at federating these forces – even though the battle remains very open.
There has been a lot of talk about “infighting within the Left”, with a clear divide between part of the socialists and LFI. What are the stakes for 2027?
F.S.: The fracture between those who refuse any alliance with LFI and the others has been reinforced with this vote. But what we notice is that the autonomous centre hardly exists any more, the central block is now clearly uniting with the right. So what is the alliance strategy of those who, like Raphaël Glucksmann or François Hollande, advocate a rapprochement with the centralists? If the Socialist Party comes out stronger after this election, it’s because it joined forces from the first round, with the ecologists, the communists, Place publique and former LFI supporters. The only path that seems to be emerging for the left is to work on this foundation by making it stronger – without LFI – while showing LFI voters that they are not “inaudible” and that their aspirations are heard.
Some observers feared a “fusion” between the right and the far right. While this didn’t happen at party level, we have, on the other hand, witnessed moderate right-wing and hard right-wing voters becoming closer…
F.S.: Local initiatives to bring the RN closer to conservative candidates were immediately condemned by LR. The fact that Bruno Retailleau did not call for Christian Estrosi to vote against Eric Ciotti in Nice caused outrage. On the other hand, voters’ choices at the ballot showed substantial porosity between the right and the far right. The presence of LFI candidates acting as a foil, RN voters voted LR to block the left, and LR voters voted RN for the same reason. It’s clear in Brest, Clermont-Ferrand, Limoges, Besançon, and Marseille that conservative LR Martine Vassal’s electorate (LR) was halved between the first and second rounds, in favour of Franck Allisio (RN).
Finally, who came out as the winner? Does this mean RN might be heading for success in 2027?
F.S.: The RN enjoyed a positive dynamic, strengthening its local presence is an important step in the right direction ahead of the senatorial elections, but also presidential and next legislative elections. That said, the FN remains on the outside looking in with regards to France’s largest cities, which is a major weakness for setting its sights on the Élysée palace. How could a party claim power at the national level while being absent in the cities where most of France’s intellectual and economic activity is concentrated? The RN represents around 30% of voters: it can win in 2027 against an isolated Jean-Luc Mélenchon, or if the left (excluding LFI) and the right remain divided. The potential success of the RN in 2027 is therefore not inevitable provided that the left or the right come together. This is what François Mitterrand managed to do in 1981 and 1988. That’s what Jacques Chirac did in 1995, like Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007. It is now up to the political forces to play… their cards right.
Interview by David Bornstein, Political Editor at The Conversation France.
