Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to begin a rehab assignment today, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Tatis will join the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas in advance of his expected activation on April 20, when he will have finished serving last year’s PED suspension.
Tatis, 24, was considered one of the top prospects in the sport during his time in the minors. He made good on that hype in his first couple of seasons, hitting 39 home runs and stealing 27 bases over 143 games between 2019 and 2020. His .301/.374/.582 batting line in that time amounted to a wRC+ of 151, indicating he was 51% better than the league-average hitter. He got mixed reviews for his defense but held his own at the premium position of shortstop. All that led to 6.4 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, in less than a full season of work.
Based on his prospect pedigree and fiery arrival in the big leagues, the Padres placed a huge bet on Tatis. They signed him to a 14-year, $340M extension going into 2021, one of the largest contracts in MLB history. The first season went about as well as expected, as Tatis continued to showcase himself as one of the better players in the league. He hit 42 home runs and stole 25 bases, leading to a .282/.364/.611 batting line and 157 wRC+. That was all despite some shoulder issues limiting him to 130 games and the club pushing him to the outfield for a bit, hoping that would be less taxing than playing shortstop. Even with those hurdles, he still accrued 7.2 fWAR, the highest total among position players that year.
The narrative has been much different since that time, however. He showed up to Spring Training in March of 2021 with a broken wrist, admitting that he had fallen off his motorcycle multiple times during the offseason. He required surgery on that wrist and was expected to miss about three months of the 2022 season, though he remained on the injured list into August as he didn’t return to health as quickly as hoped. He began a rehab assignment that month but it was reported shortly thereafter that he had been given an 80-game suspension after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. That officially ended any chance he had of playing in the big leagues at all in 2022, making that a completely lost season for him.
While out with the suspension, Tatis underwent shoulder surgery and a follow-up procedure on his wrist, using the downtime to try to get as healthy as possible. In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim had taken over the shortstop job and performed well, though the Friars went into the winter determined to make a big free-agent splash. They didn’t land Trea Turner or Aaron Judge but eventually succeeded with Xander Bogaerts. He will now take over the shortstop job, pushing Kim to second and returning Tatis to the outfield, where he played 27 games in 2021.
Tatis was cleared to begin baseball activities in January and came into this year’s spring training healthy, hitting .273/.340/.432 in 16 games. The club’s postseason run counted against his suspension, knocking 12 games off the total, but he still had 20 games remaining at the beginning of the regular season. He’s expected to be activated prior to the club’s game on April 20 against the Diamondbacks but will use the next two weeks to get into game shape in Triple-A contests. Rehab assignments for position players have a maximum length of 20 days.
It’s hard to know what to expect from Tatis after a completely lost season, multiple surgeries and a position change. But if he’s able to get anywhere close to his prior level of performance, he will be a huge difference-maker for the Padres as they look to make it back to the postseason again. With a lineup already boasting potent sluggers like Bogaerts, Juan Soto and Manny Machado, a healthy and productive Tatis could take them to another level. Defensively, the club has been using Soto in left and Trent Grisham in center this year, while right field starts have gone to David Dahl, José Azocar and Rougned Odor so far. The return of Tatis will likely cut into the playing time of that latter group, as the designated hitter slot figures to be taken by Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.
