For most of the 2022 NFL season it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Houston Texans were going to end up with the top pick in the 2023 draft, but as we enter Week 18 of the season the Chicago Bears are suddenly in a great position to swoop in and steal that spot.
That could dramatically change which player goes with the the first pick. Houston would clearly love to have Alabama quarterback Bryce Young to be the new face of its franchise, while Chicago would seemingly have little need or interest in a quarterback given the emergence of Justin Fields.
All that needs to happen on Sunday for that scenario to be put into place is for the Bears to lose to the Minnesota Vikings and the Texans to beat the Indianapolis Colts.
Given the way all of those teams are playing right now, none of that is out of the question.
Let’s start with the Bears.
The Bears (3-13) have been stuck in a dreadful stretch that has seen them lose nine consecutive games, many of them in blowout fashion. They are also starting Nathan Peterman at quarterback. Not only is Peterman a massive downgrade from Fields, but he has also been one of the worst starting quarterbacks of the modern era with only three touchdowns to 13 interceptions in his 12 career appearances, with a shockingly low 32.9 career passer rating.
The Vikings (12-4) are also still playing for better seeding and may not sit their starters.
Then we have the Texans (2-13-1).
Expecting this Houston team to beat anybody is definitely a stretch, but it has been playing better football in recent weeks and has not thrown in the towel despite its record. The Texans only lost by four points to Dallas, which was followed by an overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Those two games were followed by a surprising upset win on the road against the Tennessee Titans. They are also playing a Colts team that seems to have given up on the season with six straight losses under interim coach Jeff Saturday, with each of them becoming increasingly more embarrassing.
If there is a game for the Texans to win, this is going to be it.
If Houston ends up holding on to the first pick it will probably remove a lot of drama over the selection as Young has been the expected pick for the Texans all year.
But the Bears would almost certainly go in a different direction. Fields has started to establish himself as the team’s franchise quarterback, while the Bears have major needs every other position. It would open the door for somebody like Alabama’s Will Anderson or Georgia’s Jalen Carter to go first overall.
It also could create the possibility of a non-Houston team offering up a massive trade package to move ahead and take Young.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are also keeping an eye on this race as they own Chicago’s second-round pick as part of the Chase Claypool trade. That, combined with Miami forfeiting its first-round pick, could give Pittsburgh the No. 32 overall pick in the draft if Chicago finishes with the worst record.
