NFL Super Wild Card Weekend grades from around the league

In what seemed like the longest run-up to a first-round matchup in NFL history, the Cowboys revealed the disparity between Monday’s two teams. Prescott re-routed his season with a 28-for-35, five-TD night that snapped a Cowboys eight-game road playoff streak that dated back 30 years. Dak divvied out passes efficiently, using his receiver array that came into this Bucs matchup in far better shape compared to Week 1, and finished a game without an interception for the first time in two months. The NFL’s INT leader, despite missing five games, refused to let the Cowboys (13-5) follow other Bucs opponents in leaving a comeback door ajar. Prescott’s form buried the critiques that came out of a dismal Week 18 outing, and it sets up a tasty divisional-round matchup.

COWBOYS GRADE: A-plus | NEXT: at 49ers (Sun.)

Tom Brady’s drives bailed out the Bucs against the Rams and Saints, moving the team to an expected NFC South title. This Tampa Bay outfit displayed a performance level unfitting for this stage, and Dallas finally put a stop to this Bucs nosedive. Brady’s 351 passing yards felt like his single-season completion record — cosmetic, masking a bizarre Bucs year. The 45-year-old legend offered little against the Cowboys, marking a vast decline from his Rams comeback in last year’s playoffs. But Monday’s happenings were in line with this Bucs’ season. Tampa Bay dropped from second to 25th in scoring and from first to 16th in offensive DVOA from 2021-22, and its defense — which declined less — offered no protection against a much better Dallas team. Mercifully, the Bucs are done. 

BUCCANEERS GRADE: F 

Brady’s first red zone interception as a Buccaneer headlined a bounce-back night for the Cowboys’ defense as well. Micah Parsons pressured Brady 10 times, and Trevon Diggs won his matchup against Mike Evans (four catches, 45 yards allowed). While Dallas certainly will see an increase in opponent quality Sunday, the short-week trip to San Francisco will provide the 49ers with a steep opposition upgrade as well. San Francisco and Dallas rank first and second, respectively, in defensive DVOA, while the Cowboys — the team’s playoff unreliability disclaimer aside — showed a level that will present the stiffest 49ers challenge since their 11-game win streak started. The Parsons-DeMarcus Lawrence vs. Trent Williams-Mike McGlinchey tag-team match will be particularly enthralling.

Brady has played 48 playoff games; only three (Monday, the 2013 AFC championship in Denver, and a 2009 wild-card game against Baltimore) can be labeled blowout losses. That astounding competitive ratio highlights Brady’s talent and his teams’ penchant for defensive success. The Bucs returned their entire nucleus for a 2021 title defense and retained pieces while adding vets in ’22. The party (a rather good one) appears over, and Bucs’ void-years bills are imminent. Teams are already being connected to signing this version of Brady, but the Raiders and Titans would need to do serious work to match the 2020 Bucs situation the QB icon chose. The 49ers would present a ready-made contender but do not seem like they would upgrade with the Bay Area native. Monday would be a rough finale, but Brady’s options are limited compared to 2020.

Holding the Bengals to 234 yards and seeing their oft-used backup quarterback test the defending AFC champions, the Ravens (10-8) delivered the best version of the formula they have become accustomed to needing over the past two seasons. Baltimore’s veteran-fueled defense limited Cincinnati’s weaponry and Tyler Huntley (280 total yards) nearly pulled off a stunner. This is the best the Ravens’ offense looked since early November; the undermanned unit was flawed with Lamar Jackson prior to his now-controversial injury. But Jackson’s absence and John Harbaugh’s final-drive timeout stubbornness following a bad NFL trend further thinned the Ravens’ margin for error. Well, that and Huntley’s goal-line reach.

RAVENS GRADE: B 

Not only did the Bengals change course in free agency once Joe Burrow’s arrival became imminent, but they also bolstered their roster with Day 2 draft savvy. Jessie Bates, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and Germaine Pratt represent key drivers for Cincinnati’s resurgence. The other two starters in this deep contingent saved the Bengals’ AFC title defense. Former third-rounders Logan Wilson (2019) and Sam Hubbard (2018) teaming up on the longest fumble return in playoff history — by five yards — will be a hallowed Cincinnati sports sequence. It is also a tribute to the work the then-criticized organization was doing in the late 2010s to arm its roster for a Burrow-driven rise. With their O-line leaking again, the Bengals (13-4) still have a strong core on which to rely. 

BENGALS GRADE: B-minus | NEXT: at Bills (Sun.)

This season both showed Jackson’s value while displaying the risk a monster extension would bring for the Ravens. Jackson (11 missed games since 2021) not pushing his PCL sprain makes sense, but his timetable — initially set at around three weeks — being delayed clearly became an issue inside the Baltimore building. The Ravens are not the same without Jackson, obviously, but they are not approaching Deshaun Watson guarantee territory ($230 million — $106M more than any other NFLer). Jackson not traveling to Cincinnati on Sunday and sending a thinly veiled Instagram shot at the team sets up a seminal offseason. The Ravens built their team around Jackson’s unique skillset. With an exclusive franchise tag ($45M) set to clog the Ravens’ cap on a never-before-seen level, will they consider getting out early on a passer likely to have a shorter career?

A rare Bengals Day 2 misfire became more apparent Sunday. Jonah Williams’ knee dislocation summoned 2021 second-rounder Jackson Carman, who failed in multiple years to secure a starting guard gig the team wanted him to land. The Ravens’ defense preyed on Carman (stationed at left tackle) during a four-sack night. The Bengals began their wild-card tilt without their top offseason hired guns (right tackle La’el Collins, right guard Alex Cappa) and lost their first-round left tackle. The four sacks allowed were the most the team has yielded since a Halloween drubbing in Cleveland (five), and Baltimore’s pressure reminded of last season’s weekly Burrow besieging. Cincy has lost O-linemen in each of its past three games and looks considerably weaker for its Buffalo rematch/do-over.

No QB in the fifth-year option era (2011-present) has seen his team decline an option and then re-sign that player. Jones should be the first. The Giants (10-7-1) booked a divisional-round spot for the first time since 2011 largely because their ex-punching-bag passer’s low-wattage, high-efficiency season reached a new level. Being used regularly on designed runs, Jones (379 total yards) joined only Jackson and Steve Young with a 300-75 playoff game. No Jerry Rice- or even a Mark Andrews-like presence assisted it. Continuing to make do with a makeshift receiving situation that is steadily becoming reliable, Jones outplayed Kirk Cousins and has upped his free agency value — with Saquon Barkley set for the tag — to a staggering degree this season.

GIANTS GRADE: A | NEXT: at Eagles (Sat.)

The Giants gave Barkley just 14 touches — his second-fewest all season — and again relied on ex-Bills practice-squadder Isaiah Hodgins to lead the receiving effort. The NFL’s first 13-win team with a negative point differential, the Vikings let the Giants total 23 plays of 10-plus yards. Despite deploying five former Pro Bowlers on defense, Minnesota (13-5) could not stop Barkley (when used) or the Jones-Hodgins connection (105 yards — more than double Justin Jefferson’s total). Ed Donatell’s defense broke down weeks ago and struggled against the Giants on Christmas Eve. A letdown appeared imminent, but the Giants being the team that cracked the Vikes’ 11-0 run in one-score games, provides a rough conclusion to this historically unusual season.

VIKINGS GRADE: C-minus 

The Vikings outgained the Giants by nearly 100 yards three weeks ago, but a healthier Big Blue defense made Minnesota take backroads to gain its yards Sunday. Playing his first game since a Nov. 20 MCL sprain, Adoree’ Jackson was asked to follow the NFL’s best wide receiver. Commanding Don Martindale’s Jefferson-bracketing mission, Jackson re-emerged to stall the All-Pro (47 yards — four after halftime). That effort, along with Dexter Lawrence’s dominance (eight pressures) at nose tackle, keyed New York’s late stoppage. Some belated apologies are due for derided ex-GM Dave Gettleman, whose cornerstone cogs are shining (albeit under a much better coach in Brian Daboll). The Giants’ backups bothered the Eagles last week; Round 3 will not be easy for Philly. 

Minnesota’s minus-3 differential was in its own league among 13-plus-win teams. Mike Zimmer’s 8-9 finale last season even finished at minus-1. The Vikings will have Cousins heading into an age-35 season in 2023, with defensive pieces Harrison Smith (34), Za’Darius Smith (31), Eric Kendricks (31), and Patrick Peterson (unsigned but heading into age-33 slate) aging. Dalvin Cook is also set for Year 7 (aging in running back terms). The Vikings hired a new head coach-GM pairing, but Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah opted against a Bears-, Falcons- or Lions-esque teardown. This reload went surprisingly well, but the Vikes should not be treated like a contender needing a few tweaks. Their second-year power duo has a lot of work to do.

The Dolphins’ final drive ended barely 15 yards from field goal range, denying a team with a third-string quarterback the chance to extend the game and induce more justified panic from Bills fans. A drive that ended with 2:29 remaining became a last-gasp march because of the Dolphins’ unusual timeout situation. Mike McDaniel burned his three timeouts to avoid delay-of-game penalties. Following No. 3, the Dolphins (9-9) still could not avoid a delay whistle. This foiled an oddly winnable game for the 13.5-point underdogs, despite drop issues running Skylar Thompson’s incompletion count to 27. Defensively, Miami provided a scare into the AFC’s No. 2 seed, forcing three turnovers. Its offense could not complete the uphill battle.

DOLPHINS GRADE: B-minus 

Buffalo’s first quarter showed a Super Bowl-caliber team that has withstood obstacles to enter the AFC playoffs with perhaps the highest ceiling of its participants. The bulk of the final three stanzas brought more of the hurdles the talented team keeps creating. Josh Allen’s three fumbles, two INTs, and refusal to avoid lower-percentage deep shots — against a Dolphins team betting he wouldn’t — continued one of the rockier eight-game win streaks in recent NFL history. The Dolphins blitzed Allen on 52% of his dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats, the most any team has come after him in two years. In an effort similar to Week 3’s unusual box score that temporarily broke Ken Dorsey, the Bills (14-3) outgained the Dolphins by 192 yards to finish with one of the more frustrating playoff wins in NFL annals.

BILLS GRADE: C | NEXT: vs. Bengals (Sun.)

Styles make fights, but the events of Sunday pointed to the Dolphins having an excellent chance of extending their season had Tagovailoa played. The team made notable strides under Tua, whom QBR still ranked as a top-three passer. But Miami exits the year in familiar position: waiting on an injury-prone quarterback. The Dolphins lost four straight with Tua prior to his final concussion of the season. Considering Stephen Ross’ pursuits of Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady, it will be interesting to see the 82-year-old owner stand pat — in a conference that should be tougher in at QB in 2023 — given the Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb money doled out. The early-season intrigue surrounding their improvement aside, the Dolphins are stuck for the moment.

The Bills’ top two offseason investments went to their defense, but Von Miller is out for the season, and Kaiir Elam entered the playoffs having not cleared the 50% playing-time threshold since October. In an agonizing win, Buffalo finally saw Elam move the needle. Replacing an injured Dane Jackson, Elam snared an INT and then broke up two more passes — including Thompson’s final offering — to make a significant contribution. Jackson was healthy enough to return, but the Bills stuck with the acclaimed rookie. Elam finally giving Tre’Davious White a quality sidekick was the plan; it just has been slow to develop. Though the Bills’ secondary took an ugly hit via the Damar Hamlin scene, Elam being in better form strengthens its chances against the NFL’s best-receiving corps next week.

Although the injury-prone component has only come up over the past several years, the Chargers have offered big-stage shortcomings dating back to the Air Coryell years. Saturday brought the franchise’s biggest single-game letdown, wrapping yet another hype-filled year. The 27-point collapse is the third-worst in a playoff game, with the Bolts (10-8) now the only team in postseason history to lose a game while plus-5 in the turnover column. After Asante Samuel Jr.’s Vernon Perry tribute stretch, the Chargers crumbled offensively — the unprepared Michael Bandy handoff that began the Jaguars’ counterattack, Austin Ekeler totaling just 43 yards — and melted down on Brandon Staley’s side of the ball. Given Justin Herbert’s talents and the investments made on defense, this is an unacceptable conclusion.

CHARGERS GRADE: D

The first player to throw three INTs in the first quarter of a playoff game, Lawrence ended the night outplaying Herbert. The ex-Clemson phenom overcoming the four-score deficit and finishing the rare four-TD/four-INT night offered obvious Andrew Luck vibes, considering the since-retired star’s four-TD comeback came in Year 2 as well. The Jags’ rally marked a tribute to their 2022 offseason. Their three imported pass catchers (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram) accrued the bulk of the yardage during the Lawrence-led charge, and Doug Pederson — still the team’s biggest upgrade — settled down his prodigy after the dreadful start (0.0 rating through seven drives). The Jags have arrived early, and Lawrence’s wild-card display strengthens the AFC’s QB supply of young arms.

JAGUARS GRADE: A-minus | NEXT: at Chiefs (Sat.)

Dean Spanos gave Mike McCoy and Anthony Lynn four seasons apiece. Staley’s defense showed late-season improvement, and injuries have stung his two teams just like McCoy and Lynn’s. But Staley cost his team dearly over the past seven days. The Mike Williams development is inexcusable. His injury played a major role in L.A. totaling three second-half points. Staley’s rebuilt defense gave up two wide-open TDs and was caught flat-footed by Pederson’s fourth-down call. Joey Bosa’s penalty barrage: also bad. Herbert’s presence and the L.A. proximity could lure Sean Payton, who has eyed this job for months. With the Broncos prepared to pay up for Payton, can the Bolts afford to stand pat? History says they will, but the Payton window now becomes a flashpoint on a cursed team’s timeline.

Jacksonville’s head coaching search meandered to Feb. 3 last year, despite the team being the only one to have an early start (thanks to its December 2021 Meyer firing). Far from the glitziest name on last year’s carousel, Pederson has shown the value a quality hire can provide. Lawrence threw one TD pass between Halloween and Boxing Day last season, but Pederson’s coaching and influence on personnel decisions restored the one-time super-prospect to working order. Pederson’s late timeout leading to one of this season’s defining play calls — Travis Etienne’s Chargers-crushing sweep — cemented the Super Bowl-winning coach’s comeback from his 2020 Philly humbling. The Jags are in their best long-term spot since the late 1990s. This might not be the last Pederson-Andy Reid playoff reunion.

The Seahawks (9-9) disrupted Brock Purdy early, leading to three first-half field goals. But a defense that ranked outside the top 20 in points, yards and DVOA offered little resistance in big spots. Losing track of Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel on Purdy’s three TD finds — the Samuel catch-and-run being particularly ugly, given the lax resistance provided near the sideline — punctuated a season in which Pete Carroll’s defensive changes did not lead to much progress. The Seahawks have finished 21st in defensive DVOA in back-to-back seasons. The team missed Jordyn Brooks on Saturday and should have Jamal Adams back (his overpriced contract is unmovable) in 2023, but Clint Hurtt’s defense needs reinforcements.

SEAHAWKS GRADE: D-plus 

McCaffrey’s arrival elevated the 49ers to their best Kyle Shanahan-era version on offense, but the do-it-all running back encroached on some of Deebo Samuel’s territory. Samuel’s scrimmage yards per game figure cratered from 110.6 to 66.5 from 2021-22. As George Kittle heated up with Purdy down the stretch, Samuel entered the postseason as a third wheel. The recently extended wideout showed terrifying overqualifications for such a label, dousing the Seahawks for 165 scrimmage yards and the Brandon Aiyuk-assisted score. Samuel and McCaffrey combined for 301 yards Saturday. The former, coming off an MCL sprain and an ankle injury, showing this gear still exists, keeps a lethal club in the 49ers’ bag. San Francisco (14-4) remains the NFC favorite.

49ERS GRADE: A-minus | NEXT vs. Cowboys (Sun.)

Potentially the Comeback Player of the Year, Smith ended his season with two second-half turnovers. Seattle had a better point differential (plus-29) and offensive DVOA figure last season (seventh) compared to its figures (plus-6, 14th) this year. Smith’s 13 deep TD passes did lead the NFL, and he deserves a massive raise from the $3.5 million — agreed to in mid-April, showing the league’s 2022 view of the journeyman — he earned this season. But the Seahawks must strongly consider using their Broncos-gifted No. 5 pick on a quarterback. A $32M nonexclusive franchise tag is pretty steep for a placeholder QB. Absent a midlevel QB1 deal (largely unexplored terrain presently), overcommitting to Smith would be a mistake. A rookie would better complement the young talent base Seattle assembled in the 2022 draft.

Bosa recovered the fumble that ended up swinging the NFC West matchup, but the cinch DPOY did not tally a pressure Saturday. Bosa frequently beat his opposition in the teams’ Seattle matchup, but the underdogs minimized his production in the playoffs. The 49ers still running amok on defense paints a scary picture. Charles Omenihu, who came through with 1.5 sacks in last year’s 49ers wild-card win in Dallas, dropped Smith twice — including the forced fumble. The former Texans trade piece upped his QB-hit total from four to 16 this season, slimming down to fit in San Francisco’s 4-3 scheme. With Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw now healthy, the 49ers’ D-line has an opportunity to craft a legacy in these playoffs.