Championship weekend is nearly upon us, and there isn’t an impostor among this year’s final four. The AFC Championship Game is a rematch, right down to the venue, from last year. Kansas City and a gimpy – or is he – Patrick Mahomes will look to avenge last year’s come-from-ahead loss, while Joe Burrow will try to move to 4-0 against the Chiefs in his career and continue the Bengals’ run of vanquishing big-time teams and big-time quarterbacks. The NFC Championship Game pits the conference’s top two seeds; a 49ers team that hasn’t lost since October 23rd and an Eagles team that didn’t lose until November 14th and was only beaten once all season when Jalen Hurts started. Philly also boasts what is likely the league’s best roster, top to bottom, and just finished bludgeoning the Giants in a game some thought might be challenging. There is a very good chance we get two great contests this weekend, and no Super Bowl matchup would feel like a dud. Let’s get to the games.
Point spreads are from DraftKings.com and are current as of 11 a.m. Thursday.
NOTE: Pick with spread is in bold
Last week: 2-2 (Season: 137-140-4)
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
SAN FRANCISCO (15-4) AT PHILADELPHIA (15-3) (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET)
TV: FOX LINE: Philadelphia -2.5
This, simply put, is the matchup we all deserve. The Niners and Eagles are powerhouses, clearly the NFC’s two best teams this season, and the only teams from that conference that ever felt like true, credible threats to whichever team emerged from an AFC that looked stronger all year. The game is the rare battle where neither team has anything approaching a real weakness – San Francisco is 6th in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense, while the Eagles are 3rd and 8th, respectively – and both teams are well-equipped to neutralize the other. Any questions about the Eagles stumbling to the playoffs were answered in emphatic fashion in last week’s throttling of the Giants, and any questions about Brock Purdy were similarly answered when he outplayed Dak Prescott and won a back-alley, old-school slugfest against the Cowboys.
There’s no question that the Eagles have the clear advantage at quarterback, even with Purdy’s shockingly great play thus far. Still, San Francisco’s defense is the rare group that can take all the things the Eagles do easily against other teams and make them very difficult. Who wins probably comes down to a few factors, namely, how banged up are Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell; who wins the battle between the Eagles’ offensive line and the 49ers’ pass rush; how much running does Hurts do, given that his shoulder is still a little tender, and how effective is he when he does it; and does Purdy finally show any real cracks against the best team he’s faced all season? When you go into a game and have no feel whatsoever for what might happen, that’s usually a good sign (just not necessarily for your pick).
Look smart to your friends:
-The Niners’ defense has so many stars that Dre Greenlaw sometimes gets lost in the shuffle, but he’s coming off a season that saw him set a career-high in tackles (127) and passes defensed (6). He’ll be crucial to limiting Philly’s yards after catch, and yards after contact.
-Nick Bosa is one of three finalists for defensive player of the year, but Haason Reddick had a monster season and arguably got overlooked for the award. He was second in the NFL (behind Bosa) with 16 sacks and became the first player since 1982 with 10+ sacks in three straight seasons with three different teams.
The pick:
49ers 26 Eagles 23
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