The U.S. housing market is experiencing its greatest surplus of home sellers over buyers since records began in 2013, with approximately 490,000 more sellers than active buyers. This significant shift marks a decisive transition to a buyer’s market, influencing pricing trends, listing durations, and seller strategies nationwide.
Growing Inventory and Pricing Adjustments
According to a recent Redfin report, active home listings now total approximately 1.9 million, while the number of buyers is estimated at 1.5 million. This 33.7% surplus of sellers is a stark contrast to conditions two years ago, when buyers outnumbered sellers. If current trends persist, home prices may decline by an average of 1% by the end of 2025.
The luxury housing market, particularly in tech-heavy cities, is feeling the greatest impact. Miami leads as the strongest buyer’s market, with nearly three sellers for every buyer, while Newark, New Jersey, holds the most imbalanced seller’s market with a 2-to-1 ratio. St. Louis is noted as the most balanced, with only 1.3% fewer sellers than buyers.
Increasing Seller Concessions and Market Adjustments
As a result of the surplus, price reductions and longer listing times are becoming more common. The National Association of Realtors reported a 6.3% decline in pending home sales from March to April 2025, with a 2.5% year-over-year decrease—primarily attributed to mortgage rates, which averaged 6.89% in late April.
Redfin data also shows that seller concessions are on the rise. In the first quarter of 2025, 44.4% of home sales included compromises such as covering closing costs or funding repairs, up from 39.3% the previous year. Additionally, the median age of active listings rose to 46 days, indicating longer wait times before sales are finalized.
Outlook for Buyers and Sellers
With the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate now at 7%, nearly double what it was in 2016, affordability remains a challenge. However, buyers who have been sidelined by high prices may find increased opportunities as sellers adjust strategies to compete in a shifting market.
As the housing sector moves deeper into buyer-favorable conditions, experts advise sellers to act quickly and consider flexible pricing and negotiation tactics to attract buyers before further declines take effect.
