The No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game in the East features two teams who had much higher aspirations for this season.
The Miami Heat were the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season and came one Jimmy Butler three-pointer away from making their second NBA Finals in three years.
The Hawks traded three first-round picks for All-Star Dejounte Murray in June in hopes of becoming contenders, only to endure a chaotic season where the team replaced their coach, their team president and three other executives. They brought in new coach Quin Snyder, who has helped them stay the league’s most average team.
Atlanta is healthy, while Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable with a knee injury and Max Strus has a hyperextended finger. But we can’t imagine Lowry sitting this one out. It’s more likely he guts it out and draws at least two charges.
It’s a battle of styles. Atlanta scored the third-most points in the NBA. Miami scored the fewest points in the league, gave up the second-fewest and plays at the second-slowest pace. The Heat’s defense thrives on forcing turnovers and limiting three-point shots. The Hawks rarely turn the ball over and shot the third-fewest threes in the league this year.
Miami went 3-1 against Atlanta this season, most recently notching a 130-128 comeback victory on March 6. Last year, Miami beat Atlanta 4-1 in their first-round series, holding Trae Young to 15.4 points per game on 31.9 percent shooting. Solving the Hawks’ best offensive weapon is one big reason to favor Miami here.
They have history, too. In 2019, Trae Young yelled “It’s over” to Miami’s crowd when Atlanta took a six-point lead in the final minute – of a game Atlanta eventually lost by 14 points.
The second is Butler. Not only is Butler one of the NBA’s top clutch performers, the Hawks really only have De’Andre Hunter to defend Butler on the perimeter. Murray is a good defensive player, but he’s far too small to check Butler.
Butler killed Atlanta in last year’s series, averaging 30.5 points on 54.3 percent shooting. Unless you have tremendous faith in third-year forward Jalen Johnson, there’s no reason to think the Hawks will stop him Tuesday night.
Atlanta gave up a lot to get Murray in the offseason, and this is the exact moment they got him for. The success of the Hawks season – and the future of the Snyder era – depend heavily on tonight’s result. We think Miami’s defense, led by Butler and Bam Adebayo, stops Atlanta’s offense, and Butler and Miami’s three-point shooters do just enough to win it.
