Drafting goaltenders can be a nightmare. And that’s why teams are hesitant to take them in the first round.
There have been a few in recent years, like Jake Oettinger, Yaroslav Askarov, Spencer Knight and Jesper Wallstedt. But for the most part, the much-different development path means taking a goalie high in the first round – even if there’s starter potential – is a risk many won’t make.
The 2015 NHL Draft will likely go down as one of the best in NHL history, with the likes of Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Zach Werenski, Mikko Rantanen, Kyle Connor, Thomas Chabot, Brock Boeser and more.
But tucked away at 22nd was Ilya Samsonov, a goalie with 19 games under his belt between the KHL and its junior counterpart, the MHL. He had a decent U-18 World Championship, played well internationally, and was the best goalie available, but some scouts felt reserved about him going that high.
It took a few years for Samsonov to crack the Capitals, and he started off strong with a 16-6-2 record as a rookie in 2019-20. But it went downhill from there, whether it was because of overall inconsistent play or injuries, and last year the team elected not to qualify the guy many deemed to be the franchise’s future.
The Leafs took the questionable route of moving with two goalies coming off rough seasons, trading for Matt Murray and signing Samsonov as a UFA to a one-year deal. The idea was for both to share the net until one of them could eventually take over and be the No. 1. Samsonov held the net early as Murray dealt with injuries, only for them to swap places once Samsonov was injured in November.
By mid-December, Samsonov’s .953 5-on-5 save percentage was tops in the league and near the top in every other category. But in his next five games from Dec. 15 – Jan. 7, Samsonov had a .867 save percentage and minus-4.73 goals saved above average at 5-on-5, placing him 64th out 68 goalies and last out of the 33 goalies to play five games in that span. Murray wasn’t much better, but Samsonov was at the bottom.
In his past five games, Samsonov is 4-0-1, outdueling some stout goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Connor Hellebuyck and Sergei Bobrovsky. While he hasn’t had a particularly challenging workload this year, he’s 4-1-2 when facing at least 30 shots in a game and is 16-4-2 with two shutouts and a .921 save percentage. His numbers dipped a bit during that rough mod-December to early January stretch, but if it weren’t for the fact he’s had to share the net from the get-go, we’d be talking about a goalie with top-five stats in the league right now.
Samsonov, arguably, has the most well-rounded blueline of his career to work with. He isn’t having to save games on a nightly basis. But he’s still doing that, with his huge performances against the Jets and Rangers over the past two weeks being perfect examples of it.
He’s focused, thriving and showing why the Leafs made the right choice picking him up instead of shelling out more to bring in someone with a better recent track record. He has gone 14-0-1 at home, which is truly incredible.
“We believe in him and have high expectations, but nobody expects anybody to have a record like that,” said coach Sheldon Keefe. “It’s quite remarkable.”
Samsonov started four games in a row and played in five consecutive matches after taking over for Murray in an eventual comeback 5-4 win over Florida on Jan. 17. The last time one of Toronto’s goalies got three or more starts in a row was from Nov. 15-19, when Murray made three starts after returning from injury – and with Samsonov on the shelf. So getting four starts in a row when both goalies are healthy is definitely telling as to how the Leafs feel about No. 35’s excellent play right now.
The Leafs will have a big decision to make this summer. If Samsonov continues to excel, they’ll likely sign him to a nice raise over his $1.8 million deal. Murray has another year on his deal at $4.68 million and has been good in stretches this season. And then there’s Joseph Woll, who has an 11-1-0 record with the Toronto Marlies this season. By all accounts, it only makes sense for the Leafs to keep Samsonov around and give him every opportunity to live up to his early career hype.
But, like every Leafs goalie has failed to do over the past two decades, someone needs to go above and beyond to lead the group to a first-round playoff series win. And while the goaltending situation can change from hot to cold in an instant, with the numbers Samsonov is putting up and the performances he’s giving the team, he’s looking like the young kid that took the Capitals by storm many years ago. He was once considered one of the top, if not the best, goalie prospects outside of the NHL.
But like many high-profile goalie prospects – Juuse Saros comes to mind – it sometimes takes digging out of the trenches to get back to the land of prosperity. The numbers don’t lie – Samsonov looks excellent this year. And if he can maintain it, the team might have the answer to its long-term goaltending problem.
They also thought that about Jack Campbell, too. But hopefully, it’ll be different this time.
