With
so many thoroughbreds going the mile-and-a-quarter distance for the first time,
deciphering how the Derby will play out is incredibly challenging. Last year’s race
saw Rich Strike draw into the field from the also-eligible list on the day before
and then spring a monumental upset at 80-1 odds. The payouts are unlikely to be
as lucrative in this edition, but strong betting consideration should be given
to the following horses:
The formidable
favorite: No. 15 Forte (3-1 on the morning line)
The
winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, Forte will try to join Street
Sense (2006) and Nyquist (2015) as the only horses that went on to capture the
Derby. Though he has earned victories in each of his two races since, his Beyer
Speed Figures have dipped from 100 to 98 to 95. It’s fair to wonder if he has
leveled off, but jockey Irad Ortiz knows how to bring out his best.
The classy competitor: No.
14 Angel of Empire (8-1)
The
speed numbers are trending in the opposite direction for Angel of Empire, who most
recently posted a 94 while romping in the Arkansas Derby. With the exception of
his one race on turf last year, he has improved in every start and delivered
four wins. Jockey Flavien Prat has also fared well in his five previous Kentucky
Derbys, finishing in the money four times.
The unprecedented
upsetter: No. 17 Derma Sotogake (10-1)
No
international horse has ever won the Derby, but Derma Sotogake has a legitimate
chance to become the first. The Japanese colt turned in a visually impressive performance
in the UAE Derby, and his speed figure for that race would’ve been higher than those
of Saturday’s other entrants. Jockey Christophe Lemaire had the mount that day
and will try to make history in his second Kentucky Derby.
The board-hitting bomb: No.
11 Disarm (30-1)
Although he hasn’t been victorious in any of his three races this year (two second-place finishes and a third), Disarm always gained ground and could be forgiven for not catching the winner. Reports on his training at Churchill indicate that he’s sharp and looking fantastic. He’ll need to take another step forward in the Derby, but getting Joel Rosario back as his jockey helps.
Wagering
wisdom
Since not much separates the horses in this field, a case can be made for several others. No. 3 Two Phil’s, No.
5 Tapit Trice, and No. 22 Mandarin Hero hold the most appeal, and any combination of the seven mentioned could be used on exacta and trifecta tickets. One potential betting strategy is trying to beat the favored Forte by keying Angel of Empire and Derma Sotogake on top in your exotics.
