Japan will move forward on the Tomahawk decision as a part of the rollout of its new national security and defense strategies this month, along with a major hike in Japan’s defense budget — to the NATO benchmark of 2 percent of gross domestic product, which would make it the third-largest in the world. Together, these steps signal a Japan moving to shed its longtime pacifist constraints.
“Japan wanted to limit its defense spending and try not to acquire second-strike capability. But the situation surrounding us does not permit us to do that,” said Ichiro Fujisaki, former Japanese ambassador to the United States. “Many people thought [war] was a 20th-century issue, but we are now seeing that again.”
The missile acquisition and the growing defense budget have the support of the Biden administration, which views Japan as a pivotal partner in the western Pacific. Officials see a deepening alliance with Japan as part of a broader strategy of regional cooperation to enhance security, including a deal involving the United States and Britain helping Australia develop nuclear-powered submarines, and the United States lifting limits on South Korea building ballistic missiles.
“The United States is not just taking unilateral steps, but is seeking to empower allies and partners in ways that are deeply significant and magnify our capacities in the region,” said a U.S. official who, like several others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans that are not yet public.
The decision to buy hundreds of Tomahawks — 400 to 500 by some accounts — will put China and North Korea on notice that Japan is serious about self-defense, and that the bilateral alliance — arguably the most significant militarily in the region — is growing stronger in the face of threats from Beijing and Pyongyang, officials said.
“The introduction of this system will symbolize a major positive change regarding counterstrike capabilities,” a Japanese official said. The Tomahawk missiles, with a 1,000-mile-plus range, would put military targets on mainland China within reach.
While Japan has gradually been shifting away from self-defense-oriented policies — a 2014 reinterpretation of its constitution allowed for military action in the event an ally was attacked — change had been incremental.
Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine was “absolutely” a pivotal factor in creating the political climate that allowed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to push a strong national security agenda over anti-militarist public sentiment, a second Japanese official said.
Polls show that post-Ukraine, public support for what the Japanese government calls “counterstrike” capability has clearly risen, from 37 percent in July 2020 to over 60 percent in June.
For the Japanese, the war in Ukraine has made a Chinese invasion of Taiwan appear much more possible, deepening the public’s concern over Japan’s military readiness in the event of a regional conflict.
In August, after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) visited Taipei, an outraged Beijing carried out aggressive military drills near Taiwan, including the launch of a ballistic missile that landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. And over the past year, North Korea has tested an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles as it pursues its nuclear weapons program, even sending one over Japan.
“This represents a significant evolution in Japan’s strategic thinking,” said Jeffrey Hornung, an expert in Japanese security and foreign policy at the Washington-based Rand Corp. “China’s behavior over the last 10 years has really put Japan on a trajectory of thinking more seriously about its defense.”
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has pushed a more assertive foreign policy agenda since February. Late last month, he took the extraordinary step of saying he wanted to grow the defense budget to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 — a move long considered controversial and implausible. If he succeeds, Japan in five years likely would have the world’s third-largest defense budget after the United States and China.
Japan views the Tomahawk missiles as a “stopgap” weapon that could be delivered within five or so years, as it works to extend the range of its own Type 12 cruise missiles to have a similar ability to attack military targets on land from a distance. But that project is likely to be a 10-year effort, experts said.
Japan plans to reconfigure existing vertical launch systems on its destroyers to accommodate the Tomahawks, officials said. The Tomahawks were a top choice because they are “combat proven long-range fires,” the first Japanese official said.
The Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, or TLAMs, are built by Raytheon. They were notably used in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, demonstrating that targets could be struck at long range with precision. They would give Japan the ability to strike bases on Chinese or North Korean soil, unlike its current array of missiles, which are geared for invaders closer to Japanese territory.
Possessing Tomahawks would “add a lot” to Japan’s conventional deterrent, said the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, retired Adm. Phil Davidson. “You’ve got to have some offensive capability,” said Davidson, who retired last year. “You can’t win the World Cup without scoring a goal. You can’t just play defense all the time. If you’re going to have a deterrent capability, your adversary has to feel they’re at risk.”
The benefits would accrue to partners in the region as well, said Christopher B. Johnstone, Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies: “A Japan that is capable of striking back on its own would make a significant contribution to deterrence in East Asia.”
Japan and the United States already cooperate closely in military technology, former officials noted. The Japanese fly the F-35 fighter jet and use the Aegis missile defense system, both built by U.S. contractor Lockheed Martin. They run joint ballistic missile defense exercises at sea, including a successful one last month off Hawaii.
Japanese officials say the move would also deepen U.S. confidence in Japan’s will and ability to shoulder its defense burden.
“We are backing our intention with the budget and security strategy,” said the second Japanese official. “And that should elevate U.S. confidence in Japanese capability. That kind of confidence is important for the alliance.”
To date only Britain has been sold the Tomahawks, noted Hornung, from Rand. The United States selling to Japan “sends a message that you are in our top tier of really trustworthy countries as allies,” he said.
China has bristled at Japan’s shift. At a briefing this month, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning called Japan’s plans a “very dangerous” development.
“Japan needs to earnestly reflect on its history of aggression, respect the security concerns of Asian neighbors, act prudently in the field of military security, and do more things that are conducive to regional peace and stability,” Mao said.
In May, Japan’s national security adviser, Takeo Akiba, met in Washington with his White House counterpart, Jake Sullivan, and broached the idea of buying Tomahawks, according to people familiar with the matter. Sullivan, they said, was receptive.
“We’ll start a process to look at it,” he told Akiba, according to the people. “And we’ll stay in touch with you.”
Tokyo has not yet made a formal request to purchase the weapons, officials said.
The government is still sensitive to domestic antiwar sentiment and is steadfastly framing the weapons in terms of self-defense. “It’s defensive-offensive — not offense-offense,” said the second official. “We still consider it defensive.”
But, the official conceded, “this [move] is quite extraordinary. The Tomahawk is very significant.”
Japan was the first Asian nation to join the West in imposing sanctions on Russia over its invasion, leading Russia to label it an “unfriendly” country and to increase its military activity in the vicinity.
Officials in Tokyo saw how NATO support for Kyiv increased after it demonstrated a will to fight in the face of long odds, said Johnstone, until June a White House director for East Asia: “They concluded the best way to ensure the United States and others are in their corner in a crisis was to show they had invested in their own defense and were prepared to fight. That is the central lesson of the Ukraine war for Japan.”
Indeed, Japan is poised to take a remarkable turn in its defense posture in many ways beyond just new hardware and increased spending. This month, the Defense Ministry is also expected to announce an increase of its cybersecurity team to 20,000 by 2027, up from the current 800, staffing up the government to close major gaps in its cybersecurity capabilities.
Japan is also considering making it easier for the Self-Defense Forces to use civilian ports and airports in peacetime, a further reflection of its concerns over readiness in case of conflict.
Nakashima reported from Washington. Julia Mio Inuma in Tokyo contributed to this report.
