Many pundits are claiming that the 2024 contest will be the most important US election since 1860. Most Europeans would also agree. At stake is not just the future of democracy in America, but arguably the future of the post-World War II international order.
Transatlantic relations are the beating heart of this order. They were significantly weakened during the Trump presidency, somewhat bolstered under Biden, and are now dangerously close to being tested again if Trump returns to the White House.
The election is also mired in uncertainty. With less than four weeks to go until polling day, Harris and Trump are neck and neck in key swing states. Spiralling conflict in the Middle East will only add further uncertainty to the final stretch before election day.
The 2024 race has been one of the most dramatic and unpredictable in recent decades, marked by two assassination attempts on Trump, his recent felony conviction, and Biden’s sudden withdrawal in favour of his Vice President. Given Trump’s track record, we also cannot discount the real and frightening risk that election results might be disputed if the margins are razor thin, with neither side conceding to the other.
To be sure, a Trump win will have more immediate negative impacts on the EU in the short term than a Harris presidency. A second Trump term will undermine US democracy and lead to a potentially irreversible weakening of transatlantic relations. Trump’s open support for Europe’s autocratic governments, such as Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary, will also embolden and legitimise the continent’s far right parties.
Over the next 4 years, the ties that have bound the US and EU since 1945 could be loosened and broken beyond repair. In Europe, the impacts will be felt most strongly in three main areas: defence, trade and climate policy.
NATO and war in Ukraine: the main bone of contention
One of the biggest points of difference between the two candidates is Trump’s stance on NATO and his lack of support for Ukraine. Trump has famously claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, though there is little confidence that a Trump brokered peace plan with Russia would protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
When he was president, Trump even threatened to leave NATO altogether. If he followed through on this it would embolden adversaries such as Russia, and threaten European security in general.
Harris, in contrast, has shown unwavering support for NATO and Ukraine. If she were elected, this would continue to bolster the security architecture that has maintained European stability since World War II. However, even if Harris wins, the EU should build its own deterrence and defence capabilities, and reduce its heavy reliance on the US.
Trade relations
The EU-US economic relationship is the world’s largest, with trade between the two blocs valued at more than $1.3 trillion annually. Annual US-China trade, for comparison, is valued at $758 billion. The US has large deficits with both.
In light of this, Trump has promised a 10% tariff on all imports, and new tariffs of 60% or more on all goods from China. He considers the EU to be a competitor just like China.
There is no reason to think that Harris’ approach will be softer – Biden has been equally hard on the EU and Harris will most likely continue his policies. Her campaign also seems to be adopting an anti-China stance.
The EU will therefore be in a bind, facing tariffs on its exports to the US as well as pressure from the new US administration to also be tough on China. So, no matter the election’s outcome, there is a real risk of increased competition between the EU and the US, with each side likely to respond to tariffs imposed by the other with protectionist policies.
There are ways to avoid or mitigate confrontation over trade, such as pursuing dialogue through the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in order to defuse disputes before they take place. The EU should also try to diversify and secure trade agreements with other partners such as Mercosur and India.
Climate policy
Lastly, there is the new US president’s climate policy. Trump has vowed to pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement yet again if he is re-elected. He has also promised to increase oil and gas production (“Drill, baby, drill!). These measures will make the Paris goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C almost impossible to reach.
For her part, Harris has been eerily silent about climate issues on the campaign trail, which also bodes ill for European efforts to address the climate challenge.
Change is already on the horizon
One thing is clear: whether the next US president is Trump or Harris, Europeans must understand that transatlantic relations have already changed irrevocably, and that the EU’s interests and values are no longer fully aligned with America’s.
A Harris administration will perhaps bring more predictability than a Trump presidency, but for how long? And what happens in another 4 years? As Peter Baker, the Chief White House New York Times correspondent, recently asked: “Is Trump the aberration or is Biden the aberration? Which one stands for where America really plans to be from now on?”
European states need to be prepared for a changed world order in which they rely much more on themselves and other potential allies (the UK, Japan, South Korea) than on their traditional transatlantic counterparts, regardless of who wins on November 5th.
