March 2025 – Gold prices have hit a new record high, reaching $2,989.31 per ounce, driven by growing geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Spot gold has surged nearly 14% in 2025, following a 27% increase in 2024, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and potential recession risks.
Macquarie Bank analysts have raised their gold price forecast for 2025, predicting a peak of $3,500 per ounce by the third quarter. Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, stated, “We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce,” citing U.S. tariff actions and rising inflation expectations as key drivers.
The tariffs, including a 25% levy on steel and aluminum exports and a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, have sparked geopolitical uncertainty. President Trump’s trade policies, along with the looming possibility of a U.S. recession, are fueling concerns in the financial markets. This has led to reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and contributed to a decline in real interest rates, which further supports gold prices.
Despite these concerns, President Trump has not ruled out the potential for a U.S. recession, commenting, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big.” His remarks led to a 2.7% drop in the S&P 500, bringing the index down 10.1% from its February 19 record high.
Sources: Macquarie Bank, U.S. Trade Office, financial analysts.
