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Gold prices are poised to close August with a monthly gain, buoyed by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September and a weaker dollar. The rally reflects renewed investor interest in safe-haven assets as economic uncertainty and policy shifts continue to shape global markets.
According to analysts at UBS and Mehta Equities, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month has surged to over 85%, following dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Christopher Waller at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Lower interest rates typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold by reducing opportunity costs.
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose to ₹1,02,199 per 10 grams, while international spot prices hovered near $3,418.50 per ounce. The metal has gained nearly 3% in August, supported by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty under the Trump administration.
Despite the upward momentum, a recent rebound in the U.S. dollar—up 0.2% after stronger-than-expected GDP and jobless claims data—has capped further gains. Analysts expect gold to remain range-bound in the near term, with support levels at $3,385–$3,365 and resistance near $3,450.
Investor focus now shifts to the Fed’s September policy meeting, where confirmation of a rate cut could further fuel gold’s bullish outlook.
