Tuesday night belonged to LeBron James. But Timo Meier sure had himself a nice evening, too: two goals, one assist and the overtime winner for the San Jose Sharks over the Lightning. Not bad.
And you can bet many other NHL teams were watching closely, Mr. Meier, because you are unofficially the belle of the trade deadline ball.
As a restricted free agent following this season, he’s owed a hefty $10 million qualifying offer, and the Sharks, finding their way under new GM Mike Grier, are nowhere remotely close to Stanley Cup contention. Inching toward more of a traditional rebuild, they can get a massive return for Meier, especially if the acquiring team bakes in a long-term contract extension, which is likely to carry an AAV of $8-9 million, per Seravalli.
Meier, smack in his prime at 26, is a natural shooter who absolutely peppers opposing goaltenders. Per Natural Stat Trick, over the past three seasons, Meier leads all NHL players in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Only Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak average more 5-on-5 shots on goal per 60, while Meier also sits second only to Auston Matthews in individual scoring chances per 60. Meier tilts the ice and brings solid physicality to his game.
Meier may alter the league’s power balance more than any other piece leading up to the March 3 trade deadline. He’s a relatively complex asset to acquire, however, factoring in his current $6 million cap hit, qualifying offer and acquisition cost, What I’m hearing is a first-rounder — and one Grade-A or two Grade-B prospects, or one good prospect and a young, established NHL player, which is reportedly some combination of a first-round pick, a top prospect, multiple B-grade prospects and a young roster player. That means not every contender is a realistic suitor for him.
But who might be? Consider these five teams, listed alphabetically.
(Sorry, Toronto Maple Leafs fans. You didn’t make the cut. He’d be an exciting fit, but the Leafs already have roughly $40 million invested in four forwards. Imagine if it was pushing $50 million for five? Doesn’t seem possible.)
Carolina Hurricanes
When Seravalli published his Meier profile and listed some potential suitors, the Canes weren’t on the list, but Max Pacioretty re-tore his Achilles tendon just hours after we ran the Meier story and may have changed Carolina’s deadline priorities.
Why he makes sense: It’s time for the Hurricanes to take a big swing. They’ve finished with a points percentage no lower than .596 in any of their four completed seasons under coach Rod Brind’Amour, they’re currently tracking for a franchise-high .745 mark, and they haven’t reached the Stanley Cup Final since they won it all with Brind’Amour still playing in 2005-06. The always-conscientious Canes have the league’s No. 4 defense and No. 7 penalty kill but are 10th in offense and have the 20th-best power play. They haven’t had a 40-goal scorer since Eric Staal in 2008-09. Meier is on pace for 47. And with Pacioretty‘s $7 million AAV landing on LTIR, cap space shouldn’t be a problem. That includes next year, too, as Pacioretty’s money comes off the books this summer.
What might it cost: The Canes have their first-round picks for the next three drafts. They’d have to dip into their prospect cache and include someone like defensemen Scott Morrow. Jack Drury has already gotten a look at the NHL level but has been squeezed out by Carolina’s depth. Maybe he’s a fit. If the Sharks want to shoot for the moon, they could ask for promising young forward Seth Jarvis. I assume the Canes wouldn’t want to part with Pyotr Kochetkov, who looks like their goalie of the future and a steal with a $2 million AAV for the next three seasons. But could GMs Don Waddell and Grier, who came together on the Brent Burns trade in the summer, scratch each other’s backs with Antti Raanta going to San Jose as a throw-in? He’d be a flippable asset to net the Sharks another pick, while Kochetkov would no longer be blocked at the NHL level and could form a playoff-ready tandem with Frederik Andersen.
Fly in the ointment: Is a winger really what Carolina needs most? Neither Paul Stastny nor Jesperi Kotkaniemi has adequately filled the Vincent Trocheck void at center. Would the Canes be better off chasing, for instance, Ryan O’Reilly?
New Jersey Devils
Why he makes sense: The Devils’ time has arrived. They’ve assembled the necessary critical mass of young talent and they’re riding centers Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier into a new era of contention. They could use another gunner on the wing, however, and how tantalizing would it be to make a Swiss connection between Hischier and Meier? With so many of their depth forwards and D-men set to become UFAs next season, the Devils are swimming in long-term cap space with which they could extend Meier.
What it might cost: It’s been 10 years since New Jersey didn’t pick in the first round of the Draft. It’s finally safe to activate contender mode and sacrifice futures in the pursuit of present success. But a trade for Meier would likely mean surrendering one of the players the Devils chose in a recent first round. The Devils would be loath to take Jack Hughes’ brother Luke away from him, so Alexander Holtz has to be the ask if you’re Grier, right? He has the long-term upside to replace Meier as a first-line sniper. To make the cap space work in the short term, it’s fair to assume GM Tom Fitzgerald would have to move money San Jose’s way. Pending UFA left winger Miles Wood currently toils on the fourth line and carries a $3.2 million cap hit.
Fly in the ointment: The Devils’ contention window is just opening. They’re poised to break through as a playoff team for the first time in the Hughes era. There’s arguably no rush, then. They could always stand pat for this season, see how far they go and focus their cap space on extensions for their many RFAs, including Jesper Bratt, Michael McLeod, Yegor Sharangovich and Fabian Zetterlund.
New York Rangers
Why he makes sense: Seravalli reports that the Rangers are prioritizing Meier as a target. He could put an already star-studded roster over the top and settle in on a line with Artemi Panarin. Meier could vault the Rangers to the top of the Cup contender heap.
What it might cost: The Blueshirts have the means to make a deal happen. They have two picks for a tantalizing 2023 Draft’s first round. The extra first-rounder, acquired from the Dallas Stars, will not trigger the condition that shifts it to 2024, as the pick won’t be top 10. So the Rangers have the power to dangle two firsts for this epic draft class. The big question is whether GM Chris Drury would be willing to break up the Kid Line. Filip Chytil might be too hot now to let go, but Kaapo Kakko, not always trusted by coach Gerard Gallant, could bust out with a reset on a new team.
Fly in the ointment: The Rangers have to be careful managing their cap space for 2023-24 and beyond. Their 2023 RFAs include Chytil, Alexis Lafreniere and defenseman K’Andre Miller, while Ryan Lindgren’s deal is up after next season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Why he makes sense: The Pens didn’t bring back Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang for one “Last Dance” season. They re-upped the long-time franchise stalwarts on four- and six-year deals, respectively. They’re flooring this car until the last drop of gas evaporates, so GM Ron Hextall might be willing to pay up for a marquee non-rental piece like Meier. Adding him to their forward corps would also extend the contention window for Sidney Crosby and Co. That’s important considering the Pens, ahem, aren’t even guaranteed to make the playoffs this season. With Jason Zucker and his $5.5 million AAV going UFA this summer, they could find enough cap space to extend Meier.
What it might cost: The Pens would have to get creative to entice San Jose. You’d think it would start with a first-round pick, which they have tossed around like pocket change for much of the Sidney Crosby era in the name of contending for titles in the present – but Hextall is a much more conservative GM than Jim Rutherford or Ray Shero was in Pittsburgh and has indicated that the Pens’ 2023 first-round pick isn’t in play. With respect to Owen Pickering and Samuel Poulin – the only players Pittsburgh has chosen in round one in the past eight drafts – those two don’t have the elite-level potential to get a deal done on their own – especially if the Pens would be asking San Jose to take more than one contract off the books, starting with Kasperi Kapanen’s.
Fly in the ointment: The Pens just may not have the assets to compete with rival suitors here. Look at what a team like the Rangers can offer by comparison. The Pens don’t have anything close to the best hand at the poker table unless Hextall caves and includes a first-rounder.
Winnipeg Jets
Why he makes sense: GM Kevin Cheveldayoff isn’t a particularly aggressive GM, but he’s not completely averse to leveling up when he knows his team is competitive. He did so in 2018 and 2019 in deadline deals for Paul Stastny and Kevin Hayes, respectively. Between Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Blake Wheeler, multiple long-term core Jets are entering the final seasons of their contracts next year. And with rumors constantly swirling about Pierre Luc-Dubois potentially forcing his way out as an RFA after this season, a-la Matthew Tkachuk, right now might be the best chance this group has at a deep playoff run, especially with the Colorado Avalanche stuck playing catchup in the Central Division. Who would’ve pegged the Jets to have a real shot at home ice in the playoffs before this season began?
What it might cost: The Jets already don’t have a second-, fourth- and sixth-round pick in this year’s NHL Draft. Might as well empty the clip. It would be a non-starter to include Cole Perfetti at this point, but a package built around Rutger McGroarty and/or the currently injured Chaz Lucius could be appealing. Why not kick in former first-round defenseman Ville Heinola, who has never found his footing in Winnipeg, as a reclamation project?
Fly in the ointment: There’s a reason why departure rumors have followed Dubois seemingly since the moment he became a Jet two years ago. Winnipeg is not a popular destination for outside free agents. Most of the players the Jets have signed to long-term deals were homegrown, drafted talents. Would they have a harder time than other teams securing a Meier extension as part of a trade?
