As the NBA regular season winds down, the MVP race between Joel Embiid of the 76ers and Nikola Jokić of the Nuggets tightens.
The past two seasons, Jokić has won the MVP, edging Embiid both times. Per Oddschecker, the players are neck and neck this season. However, four-time NBA champion Draymond Green of the Warriors gives Embiid the edge.
“Joel has definitely created a tad bit of separation,” he said on his podcast recently.
On Jan. 28, in their only head-to-head matchup this season, Embiid dominated, tallying 47 points, 18 rebounds and three steals in Philadelphia’s 126-119 win. Jokić, meanwhile, had 24 points, eight rebounds and nine assists.
Here’s how their MVP cases stack up.
Basic stats
Both big men are having great seasons statistically.
Jokić is averaging 24.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists and shooting 63.4% from the field. If he were to average 10 assists, he’d be the only center and third player in NBA history to average a triple-double. (The others were Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook, who has done it four times.)
Embiid is averaging a league-leading 33.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting 54.5 percent overall, 34.1 percent from three and 85.6 percent from the line. He is also the anchor for the 76ers’ seventh-ranked defense, averaging 1.1 steals and 1.7 blocks.
Last season, Embiid became the first center since Shaq to average 30 points in a season. He’ll repeat that feat this season.
Their offensive production is similar, but they go about it in different ways. Jokić is more focused on facilitating the running of Denver’s offense while Embiid’s priority is dominating in the post. Embiid’s stellar defense gives him an edge over “The Joker.”
Advanced statistics
It will be tough for Embiid to base his case on these advanced numbers that usually favor two-time MVP Jokić, an advanced stats darling.
Jokić leads the NBA in plus/minus (+789) by a large margin. Second and third are teammates Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (+683) and Aaron Gordan (+657). This may be a bigger sign of the Nuggets’ success as a team than Jokić’s individual dominance.
Embiid is 11th in the NBA in plus/minus at +531 and the only 76er in the top 12.
Per FiveThirtyEight, Jokić leads the NBA in total RAPTOR (+14.6) and RAPTOR WAR (+20.4). (The figures measure how much a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to the league average.)
Embiid is second in both categories (+8.6 and +12.3).
Overall, Jokić dominates Embiid when looking strictly at advanced statistics.
Team success
The Nuggets (51-24) and 76ers (49-26) are having excellent seasons, with Denver first in the Western Conference and Philadelphia third in the East.
The teams are tied for the second-best record since Jan. 1 (28-12), but Denver has struggled recently. Earlier this month, it lost five of six games, including losses to the San Antonio Spurs (19-56) and Chicago Bulls (36-39).
Their team records are close, but you could argue Embiid merits an edge playing in the tougher Eastern Conference.
Bottom line
Reigning MVP Jokić hasn’t done quite enough to join Bill Russell (1960-63), Wilt Chamberlain (1965-68) and Larry Bird (1983-86) as the only NBA players to win three straight MVPs.
Embiid should win the 2023 NBA MVP award.
