A season that started with a roar for Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy owners ended with a whimper.
On Tuesday, the Colts put the running back on IR, ending his season. Taylor is only the most recent in a long line of players who underwhelmed after earning a No. 1 ranking on preseason fantasy football big boards.
In 2021, the former Wisconsin running back tallied 2,171 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. His 2022 sequel looked more like “Jaws 2,” a huge movie dud, than “The Godfather, Part II.”
Taylor ended the season with 1,004 total yards and four touchdowns. There’s an argument to be made that his season as the No. 1-ranked prospect by fantasy football prognosticators is the most disappointing of the past 10 years.
The numbers suggest that the unfortunate souls who land the first overall pick next year may want to go against the grain.
The past 10 players ranked No. 1 in the preseason averaged 613.9 yards less than they did the previous year and 5.2 fewer touchdowns.
Only Adrian Peterson in 2015 and Christian McCaffrey in 2021 saw an increase in yards, and that’s because both returned from injuries.
In the most extreme examples (RB David Johnson in 2017 and McCaffrey in 2020), the drop-off in production was due to injuries early in the season.
In those instances, fantasy owners had plenty of time to comb through the waiver wire or make trades to make up for the lost value.
Taylor played in 11 games this season. Fans — both in fantasy and in real life — waited with bated breath for a breakout that never came.
Over the past 10 seasons, Taylor had the biggest drop-off in yards and touchdowns among projected No. 1 picks who played in more than 10 games.
The year didn’t go as Taylor planned, but the numbers show that a drop in production should have been expected.
Next year, we’re bucking trends and drafting kicker Justin Tucker first overall.
