China, the world’s second‑largest silver producer, is preparing to implement strict new export controls that analysts say could reshape global supply chains and intensify pressure on already‑tight physical silver markets. While not a full export ban, the policy—set to take effect in January 2026—will require exporters to obtain government licenses, a move widely interpreted as a significant tightening of outbound supply.
The new licensing regime replaces China’s long‑standing quota system and is expected to limit exports to large, state‑certified producers. Officials have signaled that the shift is designed to prioritise domestic demand, particularly for fast‑growing sectors such as solar manufacturing, electric vehicles and advanced electronics—industries where silver is a critical input.
Market analysts warn that the restrictions could deepen the global silver deficit, which has already widened due to surging industrial consumption and shrinking inventories. COMEX stockpiles have fallen sharply in recent years, while premiums in Shanghai have climbed, reflecting tightness in the physical market.
Although China has not announced a complete halt to exports, the new controls are expected to reduce the volume of silver available to international buyers and increase volatility across global markets. Some forecasts suggest that the policy could remove thousands of tonnes from annual global circulation, amplifying supply‑chain risks for manufacturers worldwide.
As the world’s second‑largest producer, China plays a pivotal role in the silver ecosystem. Any move that constrains exports—whether through licensing, prioritisation of domestic industries or strategic resource management—has the potential to reshape pricing dynamics and accelerate the global scramble for alternative supply sources.
