China’s Export Recovery Strengthens in June/ July Following US Tariff Truce

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📍 Beijing, July 15, 2025 — China’s exports rose 5.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding forecasts and marking the strongest monthly performance since March, according to the General Administration of Customs. The rebound follows a tentative trade agreement between Beijing and Washington that eased tariffs and helped stabilize bilateral trade flows.

📈 US Trade Shows Signs of Recovery Exports to the United States surged 32.4% in June, reversing a sharp decline in May and signaling renewed momentum in the wake of the tariff truce. The agreement, reached in late June, led both sides to lower duties on a range of goods, including rare earths, semiconductors, and jet engine components, restoring confidence among exporters.

Imports from the US also improved, falling 15.5% compared to a 34% drop in May, suggesting a partial recovery in bilateral trade activity.

🌍 Diversification Supports Broader Growth China’s export strength was further bolstered by increased shipments to:

  • ASEAN nations: up 16.8%
  • European Union: up 7.6%
  • Latin America and Africa: continued expansion

These gains reflect China’s ongoing strategy to diversify trade partners amid global uncertainty and protectionist pressures.

🛃 Rare Earths and Strategic Goods Surge Exports of rare earths rose 60.3% to a record 7,742 tonnes, as buyers stockpiled materials ahead of the August 12 deadline for new US tariffs. Shipments of steel, integrated circuits, cars, and ships also posted double-digit growth.

📉 Outlook and Risks While June’s performance exceeded expectations, economists caution that export momentum may soften in the second half of 2025 due to:

  • Looming “reciprocal” US tariffs set for August
  • New duties on transshipped goods via Vietnam
  • Continued pressure on China’s domestic demand

Still, the June data offers a positive signal for China’s economy, which is expected to post Q2 GDP growth near 5.1%, in line with government targets.

For full analysis, see reports from CNBC, France24, and MSN.

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