The Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have discussed a contract extension, though it doesn’t appear the two sides got anywhere close to a deal, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
The slugger said that he would love to stay in Toronto for his entire career but that the negotiations “haven’t reached the point that there’s something serious about it.”
It’s unclear exactly when these talks took place but Guerrero said in January that extension talks had not yet taken place. That would seemingly point to the negotiations taking place during Spring Training, a fairly standard time for those kinds of conversations.
From the point of view of the Jays, it’s hardly a surprise that they have interest in securing Guerrero’s services for the future. The former top prospect has established himself as a premier hitter in the majors over the past few seasons.
He hit 48 home runs in 2021 and slashed .311/.401/.601 for a wRC+ of 166. In most years, that would have been good enough for an MVP award, but Vladdy had the misfortune of having that season coincide with Shohei Ohtani’s true emergence as a two-way player. That led to Guerrero coming in second in the vote behind Ohtani.
Last year, Guerrero dipped slightly but still hit 32 home runs and put up a .274/.339/.480 batting line and 132 wRC+. He also stole eight bases and showed progress with his first base defense, winning a Gold Glove award and coming in seventh among all major league first basemen in the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards.
He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .400/.472/.556 through 11 games. All of that has coincided with a return to contention for the club, which made the expanded playoffs in 2020 and then tallied 91 and 92 victories in the subsequent two seasons.
But from the player’s point of view, there’s little reason for him to settle for anything below market value, even if his comments about wanting to stay are genuine. As the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, who made millions of dollars in his career, the younger Guerrero likely began from a stronger financial position than many of his peers.
On top of that, he was a highly touted player as a teenager, signing a bonus of $3.9M when he was 16 years old. He’s now progressed through to his arbitration years, first qualifying last year as a Super Two player. He made $7.9M last year and got that bumped up to $14.5M this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025.
With all of that money already in the bank and plenty more on the way, Guerrero has tons of leverage. Walking away from money always carries the risk of a serious injury later diminishing one’s earning power, but Guerrero already has plenty of security and is currently slated for free agency ahead of his age-27 season.
He doesn’t play a premier defensive position, but his youth and offensive abilities should still make him quite attractive as a free agent if a deal with the Blue Jays doesn’t get done.
The Blue Jays have a few contracts on the books beyond that 2025 season, which is currently lined up to be Guerrero’s last. José Berríos is on the books through 2028 while George Springer and Kevin Gausman are signed through 2026. That leaves plenty of room for a big contract for someone like Guerrero, but the Jays also have other players to consider.
Third baseman Matt Chapman is a free agent at the end of this season, while shortstop Bo Bichette is in the same boat as Guerrero, set for free agency after 2025. The club has also reportedly had some talks with right-hander Alek Manoah, though those didn’t appear to gain much traction either. Manoah’s case is less urgent since he’s not slated to hit the open market until after 2027.
Although the talks with Guerrero haven’t made much progress yet, he doesn’t seem to be walking away from the table.
“I’m going to take care of what I’ve got to take care of, which is on the field, and the rest I’m going to leave to my agents to work with,” he said. “I know who I am. I know my value. We’re going to keep having conversations, but all my focus every day is here on the field.”
