My credentials are clear as day, and now let’s have some fun. Do not take this article too seriously, but at the same time, take it completely seriously. Make sense?
The participants (& best odds)
- Buddy Hield (+425 DK)
- Damian Lillard (+470 FD)
- Jayson Tatum (+550 FD)
- Kevin Huerter (+550 DK)
- Tyrese Haliburton (+650 FD)
- Lauri Markkanen (+650 DK)
- Tyler Herro (+800 FD)
- Julius Randle (+950 FD)
Anfernee Simons had to drop out of the event, opening up a spot taken by Julius Randle. Buddy Hield is the slight favorite, and as we’re about to get to, he’s here for good reason.
Shooting splits
I am going to continue flip-flopping with my disclaimers. There is no scientific approach to an event like this. At the same time, I believe there is, and the science I prefer to put weight into is how a player has shot in the arena the event takes place, that being the home of the Utah Jazz this year.
I know what you’re thinking — that is a really stupid thing to look at when they’re shooting from stationary racks, and to that I say — you’re right. But you’re also wrong. Last season we identified that Karl-Anthony Towns was shooting an absurd 62% from deep in Cleveland, and we used that and nothing else to base our bet on. It paid off, so who is to say if this matters or not?
For the sake of a more complete study, below are each of the three-point contest participants and their three-point shooting splits for their season, the last 10 games and their percentage in Utah.
Buddy Hield L10 games: 43.3% Season: 42.6% In Utah: 42.6%
Damian Lillard L10 games: 36.8% Season: 37.2% In Utah: 36.7%
Jayson Tatum L10 games: 38.4% Season: 35.7% In Utah: 37%
Kevin Huerter L10 games: 26.2% Season: 39.2% In Utah: 46.2%
Tyrese Haliburton L10 games: 37.7% Season: 39.9% In Utah: 37.5%
Lauri Markkanen L10 games: 35.4% Season: 41.2% In Utah*: 44.9%
*Used Markkanen’s home shooting numbers this year since he is a member of the Jazz
Tyler Herro L10 games: 35.5% Season: 36.9% In Utah: 23.1%
Julius Randle L10 games: 29.8% Season: 33.8% In Utah: 38.9%
Initial favorites
To me, I am putting about 150% weight into shooting percentage in Utah, which would give Kevin Huerter, Lauri Markkanen and Buddy Hield the early edge as I look to find a favorite shooter.
Huerter’s last-10 numbers are a bit concerning, but who’s to say Kevin hasn’t just been locked into this tournament and it led his mind adrift during the game? He could easily be the most dedicated participant in this event, and I’d hate to overlook him because of a brief cold spell.
Buddy Hield is the only player here to have a clean sweep of 40% or higher across his splits, and he’s eighth in the NBA this season in 3P% – a worthy betting favorite. Hield won this event back in 2020, and I looked back on the tape and it was absolutely electric. Hield’s money rack was the final corner, and he nailed all five in the first round and four in the final round, including a walk off with his last ball.
