The African continent enters 2026 amid a complex tapestry of military consolidation in the Sahel, high-stakes democratic transitions in East Africa, and a resurgence in commodity-driven economic performance. From the relocation of national capitals to historic shifts in the UN Security Council, this brief highlights the critical developments shaping the region.
Geopolitics & Policy
DRC and Liberia Ascend to UN Security Council In a landmark diplomatic achievement, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Liberia officially began their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council on January 1, 2026. This marks the DRC’s first seat on the Council in 35 years and Liberia’s first since 1961. Both nations have pledged to use their experience as former hosts of peacekeeping missions to reshape global security dialogue.
Equatorial Guinea Relocates Capital to the Mainland President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo officially relocated the nation’s capital from the island city of Malabo to Ciudad de la Paz on January 3, 2026. The move to the mainland province of Djibloho is cited as a strategic effort to improve security against maritime threats and promote more equitable national development.
Diplomatic Fallout: Benin and Niger Exchange Expulsions Tensions between Benin and Niger reached a new low this week with a “tit-for-tat” expulsion of diplomats. Following Benin’s move to declare two Nigerien officials persona non grata on January 1, Niamey retaliated by expelling Benin’s chargé d’affaires. The rift stems from mutual suspicions regarding regional stability and a foiled coup attempt in Cotonou last month.
Security & Conflict
Mobilization in Sudan: The Battle for El Fasher North Darfur’s Acting Governor, Al-Hafiz Bakhit, made his first public appearance since the fall of El Fasher to declare a general mobilization. Speaking from Port Sudan on January 3, Bakhit announced the opening of training camps to retake the state capital from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Meanwhile, in South Kordofan, the RSF and allied forces claimed control over the strategic El Bardab area, further tightening the siege on Kadugli.
Renewed Tensions in Eastern DRC and Regional Response Clashes flared near Uvira in South Kivu between the Congolese army and M23 rebels, despite the group’s earlier claims of withdrawal. In response to the deteriorating security, Zambia is set to host a high-level meeting of defense ministers from the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) in Livingstone on January 8–10 to broker a coordinated regional response.
Nigeria: Deadly “Bandit” Raids and Maritime Drug Busts Over 30 people were killed and several kidnapped during a raid by armed gangs in Niger State on Saturday. Simultaneously, Nigerian authorities scored a major victory in the “War Against Drug Abuse” (WADA), arresting 22 Indian crew members after seizing 31.5kg of cocaine aboard the MV Aruna Hulya at the Port of Lagos on January 2.
Business & Macro
Commodity Boom Drives African Currency Surge African currencies emerged as some of the world’s top performers at the close of 2025. The South African rand recorded its best year in 16 years, appreciating over 14% against the dollar. This rally was mirrored in Ghana and Zambia, where the cedi and kwacha were bolstered by record-high prices for gold, cocoa, and copper, significantly easing fiscal strains on these debt-burdened nations.
Mining and Energy Shifts
- Copper Expansion: Hong Kong-based MMG has committed $900 million to boost production at Botswana’s Khoemacau Copper Mine, aiming for 130,000 tonnes of concentrate annually.
- Gas Divestment: Private equity firm Helios Investment Partners concluded its exit from Nigerian gas leader Axxela, selling its 75% stake as regional energy portfolios undergo strategic restructuring.
Human Rights & Tech
Uganda: Pre-Election Crackdown Intensifies Ahead of the January 15 general election, Ugandan authorities detained prominent rights defender Sarah Bireete on December 30. Bireete, a vocal critic of internet censorship, had recently advocated for Starlink as a tool to bypass potential state-led internet shutdowns. Her detention has drawn sharp criticism from the UN and regional observers who fear a narrowing of the civic space.
Tanzania: Chadema Demands Constitutional Reform Marking the start of 2026, Tanzania’s main opposition party, Chadema, renewed demands for the unconditional release of chairman Tundu Lissu, who has been detained for over 260 days. The party is calling for an independent electoral commission and comprehensive constitutional reforms ahead of the next political cycle.
Fintech Consolidation: Flutterwave Acquires Mono In the tech sector, African giant Flutterwave acquired Nigerian fintech startup Mono in a deal valued between $25 million and $40 million. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Flutterwave’s open banking capabilities as it expands its footprint across the continent’s digital economy.
