LUANDA / NAIROBI / LAGOS — As January 2026 unfolds, Africa is navigating a complex landscape of major financial restructuring, escalating humanitarian crises, and high-stakes electoral cycles. While regional powers like Angola and Nigeria are making strides in debt stability and internal security, nations in the Sahel and East Africa face severe tests of governance and survival.
Business & Macro: Debt Optimization and Industrial Ambition
In a significant move for Southern African finance, Angola has finalized an extension of its debt facility with JPMorgan. The restructured deal extends the facility for three years and includes an additional $500 million in funding. Crucially, the government secured an improved interest rate of less than 8%, down from the previous 9%, a move that has already boosted the performance of Angolan sovereign bonds.
In Gabon, the industrial sector is set for a transformation as Millennial Potash initiates a definitive feasibility study for its flagship Banio Project. Backed by financing from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the project aims to produce 800,000 tonnes of fertilizer per year, positioning Gabon as a critical supplier for global food security. Conversely, East African markets face volatility as minority shareholders in East African Breweries Limited (EABL) reportedly lost significant value following the announcement that Diageo is selling its majority stake to Japan’s Asahi Holdings.
Tech & Deals: Scaling the Digital Economy
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has proposed a $30 million equity investment in the Adenia Entrepreneurial Fund I, a private equity vehicle focused on mid-sized African businesses. This move is designed to bridge the financing gap for high-growth SMEs in Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa, fostering regional economic resilience.
Simultaneously, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Arab Coordination Group (ACG) have entered a strategic partnership to scale co-investment across the continent. This alliance of ten Arab development financiers intends to move away from fragmented project funding toward a programmatic approach, targeting large-scale energy and infrastructure initiatives.
Geopolitics & Policy: The 2026 Election Gauntlet
With 11 African nations holding elections this year, the continent is undergoing a fundamental democratic test. In Uganda, the environment ahead of the polls has been marred by a nationwide internet blackout and a heavy military presence in Kampala. Incumbent Yoweri Museveni seeks a seventh term, while opposition leaders describe the digital shutdown as a tool to hide potential electoral malpractice.
In the Sahel, Niger has intensified its diplomatic pressure on allies by revoking the licenses of dozens of truckers who refused to deliver fuel to Mali. The drivers cited a crippling blockade by an al-Qaida affiliate as a threat to their lives, yet Niger’s military administration remains firm on maintaining the regional fuel supply to support its fellow junta in Bamako.
Security: Decisive Strikes and Human Rights Concerns
Nigerian security forces have reported a major breakthrough in the fight against kidnapping syndicates. A multi-agency offensive in Kogi State resulted in the deaths of over 200 suspected bandits and the destruction of several forest camps. While the operation is hailed as a success, officials admit that the use of abducted civilians as human shields remains a persistent challenge for ground troops.
In East Africa, an independent investigation has surfaced evidence of atrocities during post-election unrest in Tanzania. Reports indicate that security forces used lethal force against unarmed civilians during a deliberate internet blackout in the Mwanza region, with hundreds of people still reportedly missing.
Human Rights: The 1,000-Day Crisis in Sudan
As the war in Sudan reaches its 1,000-day milestone, the humanitarian toll has reached catastrophic levels. The UN has raised alarms over a deepening nutrition emergency in North Darfur, where acute malnutrition has spiked far beyond the emergency threshold. New reports from the Bahri Observatory for Human Rights have also revealed the existence of secret graves and the disappearance of over 1,000 individuals, believed to have died under torture or extrajudicial execution.
Climate & Energy: Domestic Refining Reshapes Nigeria
Nigeria’s energy landscape is shifting rapidly as the Dangote Refinery ramps up local supply. Domestic petrol retailers have significantly scaled down imports, stating that the refinery’s product is now widely available. This transition toward self-sufficiency is expected to provide 1.5 billion liters of petrol monthly, potentially ending decades of fuel scarcity during the new year peak periods.
