Situational Synopsis
1. Security & Conflict
Armed Violence Intensifies in Eastern DR Congo
Fresh clashes between M23 rebels and government forces in eastern DR Congo threaten the fragile peace process, despite mediation efforts by the US and Qatar. The M23 recently seized Nzibira, a gold-mining town, with observers warning of an impending assault on Uvira, a city of 500,000. Human rights groups report ongoing abuses in rebel-held areas, including killings and sexual violence.
Sudan’s Aid Crisis Deepens Under Siege
The World Food Programme (WFP) is negotiating with Sudanese authorities to open domestic air routes to Khartoum and Kadugli, cities currently besieged by the RSF and SPLM-N. The siege has led to acute hunger and medical shortages in South Kordofan, worsening the country’s humanitarian crisis.
Insurgent Attacks Resume in Mozambique’s Balama District
Two recent insurgent attacks in Balama district, Cabo Delgado, mark the first such incidents in the area since 2022. Villages were looted, a civilian was beheaded, and school facilities destroyed. While graphite mining operations remain unaffected, the attacks indicate a geographical spread of jihadist activity.
Turkey Deploying Trainers to Niger’s Military
Turkey will send military trainers to Niger under a bilateral cooperation agreement. Turkish forces, some with combat experience in Syria and Iraq, will assist in counterinsurgency operations against jihadist groups, without engaging in combat directly.
2. Human Rights
Mass Grave Uncovered in Egypt’s Sinai Region
The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights uncovered a mass grave near al-Arish, potentially containing over 300 bodies. The victims reportedly include individuals executed without trial during Egypt’s long-running military campaign in the Sinai Peninsula.
Libyan State-Affiliated Militia Linked to People Smuggling
Footage obtained by Italian journalists shows Libya’s 111th Brigade, under the deputy defence minister, involved in migrant smuggling operations. Migrants claim they were forcibly transferred from detention centres to smugglers, highlighting Libya’s continued rights abuses against migrants.
South Africa: Human Rights Concerns Amid Meth Lab Bust
South African police arrested five Mexican nationals operating a methamphetamine lab in Volksrust. The raid, involving drugs worth $20 million, is linked to Latin American cartels. The incident raises concerns over transnational crime networks exploiting weak local oversight.
3. Governance & Politics
Tanzania: President Samia Consolidates Power Before Election
President Samia Suluhu Hassan appears set for re-election on October 29, having strategically weakened opposition forces, reshaped state institutions, and consolidated control within her Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. Although the political climate is calmer than under her predecessor, critics argue that democratic space remains constrained.
South Sudan: Legal Challenge Halts Machar’s Trial
A special court in South Sudan has delayed proceedings against Vice President Riek Machar, charged with treason and crimes against humanity. His lawyers argue the court lacks jurisdiction and that his political immunity remains intact. The case is tied to ceasefire violations in Nasir earlier this year.
4. Migration & Displacement
Africa’s Displacement Crisis Surges to 45.7 Million
The number of forcibly displaced people across Africa has reached 45.7 million, or 3% of the population, due to prolonged conflicts. Sudan, DR Congo, Burkina Faso, and Mali account for much of the increase. Notably, 69% of those displaced remain within their home countries, while 97% stay within Africa.
Sudan Tops Displacement Figures
Sudan now hosts 14.4 million displaced individuals, the highest in Africa—a 14% year-on-year rise. The escalation is attributed to ongoing warfare between the army, RSF, and other armed groups.
5. International Relations
Sahel States Withdraw from ICC
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have announced their withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, citing the ICC as a “neo-colonial” tool. The move aligns with their efforts to distance from Western institutions and forge alliances with Russia and Turkey. The decision takes effect after one year.
Kenya Calls for Support in Haiti Peace Mission
President William Ruto has appealed for enhanced logistical support for the Kenya-led UN security mission in Haiti, citing under-resourced operations. Despite limited capacity, Kenyan forces have helped secure critical infrastructure and reopened schools and hospitals in previously gang-held areas.
6. Business & Economy
Mozambique’s Graphite Region Under Threat from Insurgents
Though attacks in Balama have not directly impacted operations, the presence of insurgents near one of the world’s largest graphite reserves, operated by Syrah Resources, raises concerns about resource security and future disruptions in Mozambique’s mining sector.
African Drug Market Sees Cartel Expansion
The recent meth lab bust in South Africa is part of a broader trend of Latin American cartels expanding into Africa, according to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Cartels are increasingly collaborating with local criminal networks to exploit Africa’s growing drug market, particularly for methamphetamine.
7. Civil Liberties & Justice
Egypt Frees Alaa Abdel Fattah After Presidential Pardon
Prominent Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abdel Fattah has been released after years in prison for “spreading false news”. While his release is celebrated, he remains under a travel ban and broader concerns persist over freedom of expression in Egypt.
Sources: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, AFP, Sudan Tribune, The Africa Report, Radio Tamazuj, Middle East Eye, The Guardian, The Standard, Mozambique Times, La Repubblica, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
