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China Faces Growing Limits in Africa’s Fragile States
China’s transactional diplomacy in Africa is under increasing strain. While Beijing continues its policy of noninterference and regime agnosticism—working with any stable government regardless of its political structure—growing instability is testing this approach. A May 2025 report from the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce warned that political volatility is complicating operations for Chinese state-owned enterprises. In fragile contexts like Niger, where China has vested interests, instability risks undermining long-term investments. Analysts caution that governance quality—not just regime stability—must become a more prominent factor in China’s investment strategy.
Rwanda–DRC Peace Deal Offers Hope for Stability and Investment
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in Washington, aiming to end deadly conflict and unlock regional integration. The deal includes a 90-day timeline for Rwandan troop withdrawal from eastern Congo and plans for a regional economic framework. The agreement, dubbed the “Washington Accord,” follows months of conflict involving M23 rebels, whose advances raised fears of a wider regional war.
Sudan Conflict Deepens Humanitarian Crisis
UN efforts are underway to broker a ceasefire in Sudan’s besieged city of El-Fasher, with Sudanese army leadership expressing conditional support. Clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to displace thousands, with 3,200 families fleeing West Kordofan in recent days. The RSF has tightened its grip around key towns, including El-Obeid in North Kordofan, exacerbating Sudan’s humanitarian emergency.
AU Reviews Refugee Conditions in South Sudan
An African Union delegation concluded a visit to South Sudan, assessing the country’s ability to manage an influx of refugees from Sudan and other neighboring countries. With over 650,000 refugees now hosted, South Sudan faces rising pressure on services and infrastructure, complicated by weak documentation and porous borders.
Museveni Confirms 2026 Bid; Political Tensions Rise in Uganda
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, 80, confirmed his candidacy for the 2026 election, aiming to extend his rule beyond 40 years. This follows the abduction and recovery of MP Barnabas Tinkasiimire, a critic of Museveni, underscoring increasing pressure on opposition figures. Pro-democracy voices warn of escalating repression ahead of the polls.
Cameroon Leadership Race Opens Amid Biya Uncertainty
Tourism Minister Bello Bouba Maigari announced his presidential candidacy, becoming the second Biya ally to enter the race. With President Paul Biya, 92, yet to confirm his plans, observers note growing cracks in Cameroon’s ruling coalition, particularly among northern elites.
Somalia: Puntland Forces Target ISIS Remnants
Security operations are underway in Somalia’s Al-Miskad mountains, where Puntland forces are pursuing remnants of ISIS-affiliated militants. Authorities aim to clear remaining cells from the historically volatile region.
Somaliland Seeks Strategic Ties in Historic Qatar Visit
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi arrived in Doha for the first official visit by a Somaliland leader to Qatar. Talks will focus on regional security, infrastructure investment, and development partnerships.
Togo Protests Turn Deadly Amid Power Consolidation Concerns
Seven people were reported killed during anti-government protests in Togo, with civic groups blaming excessive force by security forces. Demonstrators were protesting political repression, rising costs, and recent constitutional changes consolidating President Faure Gnassingbé’s power.
Malawi Protesters Attacked Ahead of Election
The EU and U.S. condemned violent attacks on election protesters in Malawi. Tensions are rising over planned voting system changes and alleged government intimidation, ahead of September’s presidential polls.
Mozambique Investigates Military Abuses
Mozambique’s Human Rights Commission is investigating claims of military abuses against civilians near a TotalEnergies project. Reports allege torture and extrajudicial killings following anti-insurgent operations in Cabo Delgado.
South Africa: DA Withdraws from National Dialogue Over Corruption Allegations
South Africa’s Democratic Alliance has withdrawn from a government-backed National Dialogue and announced it will vote against the budgets of ANC ministers facing corruption allegations. The move follows the unexplained removal of a DA deputy minister from cabinet.
Nigeria Expands Caribbean Engagement and Tax Reform
President Tinubu’s historic visit to Saint Lucia signals Nigeria’s intent to deepen ties with Caribbean nations and strengthen South-South cooperation. Domestically, Tinubu signed four new tax laws to boost national revenue, while Nigeria also secured a $1 billion farm equipment deal with Brazil.
Fiscal Pressures and Energy Decisions
Senegal revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast to 7.82% of GDP, citing declining revenues. Meanwhile, the UK rejected a £25 billion plan to import renewable energy from Africa, opting for domestic alternatives.
Deals & Tech Highlights
- South Africa’s Bank Zero to be acquired by Lesaka Technologies for $61 million.
- Nigeria and Brazil sign $1B agriculture equipment and training deal.
Sources: Semafor & africacenter.org
