The shooting of a senior police officer in Northern Ireland may have been dissident republicans “sending a signal” that they are still armed and capable of carrying out attacks, an academic believes.
Dr Marisa McGlinchey, an assistant professor in political science at Coventry University, said the New IRA, who the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) suspect of carrying out Wednesday’s gun attack on Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell in Omagh, showed they wanted to demonstrate “that they’re still there”.
Founded in 2012, the group, rumoured to only number in the dozens, are made of new recruits alongside some former Provisional IRA members, with strongholds in parts of Belfast and in particular, Derry, with a base in Dublin, she said.
In 2019, the New IRA admitted responsibility for the murder of the journalist Lyra McKee, 29, who was shot dead in Derry’s Creggan estate while observing rioting.
Dr McGlinchey, whose book Unfinished Business: The Politics of ‘Dissident’ Irish Republicanism was published in 2020, told i: “The New IRA have been particularly keen to demonstrate that they’re still there, and they are still armed, because there was a lot of speculation – they’ve lost some key members, they’ve lost capability and there was speculation over whether or not they were armed.
“Well, I think this is them sending a signal that they are still capable, they are still armed. And there are still people there that have stepped in and are prepared to undertake these attacks.”
Rather than being about the ability to carry out a large-scale campaign such as that mounted by the Provisional IRA during the Troubles, the dissident group’s threat could still sustain a low, but continuous, level of violence.
“They’re aware that they’re not fighting a large-scale campaign, but they really see their strength and their capability as the fact that they can strike when they choose to and they can have a target like they did last night,” she added.
But she didn’t believe last night’s attempted murder of DCI Caldwell, who remains in a critical condition, was linked to the impasse over securing a new post-Brexit trading deal in Northern Ireland.
The saga around the Northern Ireland Protocol has seen Rishi Sunak scrambling to secure a UK-EU agreement on fixing issues with the contentious trading arrangements.
“When Lyra McKee was killed, there was speculation that this happened somehow as a result of the impasse at Stormont,” said Dr McGlinchey. “But in actual fact, these organisations like the New IRA, they’re just continuing on with their campaign. They really see themselves as the latest phase in one long republican campaign.
“They are not reactionary in the sense that they’re reacting to the impasse at Stormont and or to what’s happening with the Protocol, or Rishi Sunak. It’s rather they want to continue to disrupt normalisation and they want to continue to make their presence and their capability known. And they’ll always be looking for opportunities to do that.”
Dissident republicans last murdered a PNSI officer in 2011, when Ronan Kerr, 25, was killed outside his home by a booby-trap bomb planted in his car.
For victims of the Troubles, the New IRA’s activities are a reminder that the violence they suffered has never truly gone away, despite the official end of the conflict almost 25 years ago.
Alan McBride lost his wife, Sharon, 29, and her father, Desmond Frizzell, on 23 October, 1993, after two IRA men entered the family chip shop on the Shankhill Road carrying a bomb. The device exploded inside, claiming the lives of nine people in total and injuring 60 others.
Mr McBride, who still lives in Belfast, now manages Wave Trauma Centre, a Northern Irish charity providing care and support to victims of the Troubles.
He told i: “The New IRA have to be taken seriously as a threat to the peace. They have shown what they are capable of. It’s been a while since the last police officer was killed. But it’s stark reminder that there are still people out there with evil in their hearts, who want to bring misery to families and communities.
“They are deplorable people that have nothing to offer this society. The fact that they can kill an innocent man, in front of children, it takes you back to the bad old days of the past. It didn’t work then and it won’t work now.”
Sean Kelly, a member of the IRA, was convicted of the bombing which claimed the lives of Sharon McBride and her father. He was handed nine life sentences in 1995 but, after just five years, was released under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, which Mr McBride nonetheless supported.
“I think the answer to this sort of violence is making politics work,” Mr Bride said. “This is what people voted for in 1998. We have been let down by both Sinn Féin and the DUP [Democratic Unionist Party]. I would ask both political parties come together and work for the good of everyone. Ultimately, that will be the answer.”
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The DUP, Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party, collapsed the Northern Ireland executive, Stormont, when it walked out in February last year in protest at checks on goods crossing the border to Britain, and has refused to restore devolved bodies since elections in May.
Sinn Féin has roundly condemned the shooting of DCI Caldwell in front of his son and other young people, with its Vice President, Michelle O’Neill, branding it “outrageous and shameful”.
Support in nationalist areas for the New IRA was “minimal”, with Sinn Féin, which is opposed to dissident violence and is now the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly, and across the border, the joint-largest party in the Dáil.
However, Dr McGlinchey said the New IRA, which had a “visceral hatred” of Sinn Féin, continued to see the Police Service of Northern Ireland in the same light as its predecessor, the Royal Ulster Constabulary, with police officers remaining a “big target”.
“You have groups like Saoradh and Republican Sinn Féin that are supportive of continuing on an arms campaign,” she said. “But you also have dissident republicans within that base, mainly independents, who don’t support an armed campaign. Many of them are former Provisional IRA members who are now dissident republicans.
“And it’s quite interesting because they’re very critical of the campaign of the New IRA and the Continuity IRA, but they’ve asked them to basically cease their actions, but the groups aren’t receptive to that at all.
“So not only do they not care about public support being lacking, they’re also not receptive to other dissident republicans saying that this should stop.”
