When it comes to the Daytona 500, it’s always best to expect the unexpected.
Due to the chaotic, random nature of superspeedway racing, NASCAR’s biggest event often comes down to simply surviving until the end above all else. You can’t predict who will and who won’t get caught up in “The Big One,” but nevertheless, that’s what placing bets is for.
Las Vegas currently projects Ryan Blaney as the favorite for Sunday’s race, at +1200, but it’s no fun to go chalk, so here are five drivers who could be solid value picks for the Great American Race:
1. Kyle Busch (+1400)
Entering his 19th season in the NASCAR Cup Series, Busch has never won the Daytona 500, but he’s been close. He led the most laps in 2009 and then led on the final restart in 2019.
Busch is racing for a new team this season, Richard Childress Racing, which has historically been very successful on superspeedway tracks. If any driver could use a statement win to open up the year, it’s him.
2. Bubba Wallace (+1600)
Wallace is one of the most recognizable names in NASCAR, and because of that, he’s been held throughout his career to lofty standards that often are not fair to him.
Wallace is an elite superspeedway racer. He’s finished runner-up in the 500 twice, and last year he led laps in four of the six races on drafting tracks. There’s a real chance that after this week, when people hear his name, the first thing they’ll think of is “Daytona 500 champion.”
3. Erik Jones (+3000)
If you were told that Jones led the entire Cup Series field in Driver Rating and Average Running Position on superspeedways last year, would you believe it? He did.
Jones may have the best betting value of anyone in the field. He’s not a flashy big name, but as long as he avoids trouble, he should be right in the mix at the end. Grabbing him at +3000 is an absolute steal.
4. Justin Haley (+5000)
Now we’re entering full-blown underdog territory. If you’re going to take a flier on someone near the back of the odds sheet, why not in Haley?
Haley has four career wins on superspeedways in NASCAR’s developmental Xfinity Series. While it came under fortuitous circumstances, he is a former Cup Series winner at Daytona. He knows how to get around these big tracks.
5. Todd Gilliland (+10000)
Here’s a trend for you: Both of the past two Daytona 500s have been won by drivers who had previously never won a Cup Series race. If that were to continue, let’s take a total shot in the dark on Gilliland.
Gilliland was recently informed that his 2023 Cup schedule has been unexpectedly shortened, so he’ll have a chip on his shoulder. His team, Front Row Motorsports, always seems to have speed on the drafting tracks.
