A.J. Brown is naming names. When asked to name the NFL’s top receivers, he put himself fifth. What does “top receiver” even mean? There are many variables to consider, and according to modern analytics, he may not be giving himself enough credit.
According to ESPN Analytics and FiveThirtyEight.com, Brown was the NFL’s best wide receiver in 2022. The sites rely on data beyond the box score, using something called RTMs (receiver tracking metrics) that are updated weekly.
Here’s how Brown fared among his peers in the following categories:
Getting open
The “Open” score is weighted heavily and accounts for roughly half of the overall receiver grade. Some receivers will tell you they’re always open, but some guys do it better than others. Brown is ranked third in this category, two spots ahead of Tyreek Hill.
Making the catch
“Catch” score accounts for a little more than a quarter of the overall grade. It assigns catch probabilities for each pass using tracking data. It’s a bit complicated. Justin Jefferson led the NFL with 128 catches but was ranked sixth according to the data. No one else from Brown’s list made the top 10, and Brown tied six other players for 36th place in a category led by Pittsburgh’s George Pickens. Someone needs to check that math.
Yards after catch
Looking at yards alone, Brown had the sixth-most yards after catch of any player this year. FiveThirtyEight predicts how many additional yards a receiver will make, based on the locations, directions and other variables. Those variables say Brown was fourth-best in this category in 2022 and second-best over the last five seasons.
Overall score
Add it all up and Brown’s score of 86 was the best by an NFL receiver in 2022, beating Jefferson by a single point. Feel free to disagree, but Brown is the only receiver still playing from his own list. That should count for something.
