SEATTLE (9-8) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-4) (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
TV: FOX LINE: San Francisco -9.5
Look, let’s get something out of the way early: There’s no reason to expect this game to be competitive. San Francisco has outscored the Seahawks by four touchdowns in two meetings this year. I love the Geno Smith story. I really do. Hope he gets paid this offseason. He’s the only reason this otherwise very flawed team is in the playoffs. But the strain of carrying so much burden is starting to wear on him. And if you’re a team with a quarterback and not much else and an offensive line that’s suspect, at best, the last defense you probably want to see is San Francisco’s. Smith has 11 turnovers in the second half of the season, and the Niners tied Pittsburgh with a league-leading 20 interceptions. Meantime, why worry about Brock Purdy? Sure, Seattle could hit a lightning-strike touchdown to start the game, maybe get a turnover of their own, and put Purdy in a two-possession hole, but everything we’ve seen from him so far suggests he’s a pretty unflappable guy. More importantly, he’s in an offense built to make his life easy. Would love to call an upset here, just for the Smith story to get at least one more week, but I can’t get there. Not close, actually.
Look smart to your friends:
-Kenneth Walker will need to be huge for Seattle in this game. He was all year, as his 1,050 rushing yards made him the second Seahawks rookie (Curt Warner) to rush for 1,000+ yards.
-Nick Bosa racked up a career-high 18.5 sacks this year and became just the fourth player since 1982 with a sack in 13+ games within a single season.
The pick: 49ers 31 Seahawks 17
LA CHARGERS (10-7) AT JACKSONVILLE (9-8) (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
TV: NBC LINE: Los Angeles -2
Ooooh, this is a good one, yes, it is. The AFC is ridiculously stacked with quarterbacks at the top – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow might be the three best passers in the entire NFL – and yet it is not at all difficult to imagine Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence getting hot in these playoffs and carrying one of these teams all the way to a Super Bowl. The Jaguars have also been playing some sneaky-good defense for the last month or so, with the caveat that they racked up those numbers against the Jets, Texans, and Ryan Tannehill-less Titans. Los Angeles is decidedly not like those squads. Los Angeles has played some pretty good defense themselves, and in that very same time frame. At least, they had been until Russell Wilson carved them up in a meaningless Week 18 affair. These teams remind me of one another and have a lot of similar strengths. I’d toss out their Week 3 meeting, a 38-10 throttling by Jacksonville because Herbert’s ribs looked something like a crushed plate of tortilla chips. When you see two similar teams with similar strengths, the temptation is to roll with the better-coached group. In this case, that’s the Jaguars, but I don’t feel great about it.
Look smart to your friends:
-Austin Ekeler has gone off in both of his career games against the Jaguars. He has 332 scrimmage yards and 3 receiving touchdowns in those two contests.
-Lawrence is peaking at the right time. Over the final ten weeks of the regular season, he led the AFC with a 104.6 passer rating.
The pick: Jaguars 23 Chargers 20
MIAMI (9-8) AT BUFFALO (13-3) (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
TV: CBS LINE: Buffalo -13
Is it really worth getting deep in the weeds here? I suppose that dismissing this game out of hand opens up the possibility that a comical mismatch at quarterback yields a seismic upset, a la Tim Tebow’s Broncos beating Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers in the 2011 playoffs, but a similar result here is almost impossible to comprehend. The Dolphins are one thing with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. They are still another thing with a healthy Teddy Bridgewater. They are yet another thing with Thompson. Tua’s Dolphins could pull this off. I wouldn’t bet on it, but they could. Bridgewater’s Dolphins might keep it close. Thompson’s Dolphins will be lucky to be within two scores at halftime. Sean McDermott’s Bills are on a mission – for Damar Hamlin, to exorcise the demons of last year’s “13 seconds” loss to the Chiefs, to pay off another superlative regular season with a Super Bowl – and when they’re on their “A” game, they look like the best team in the league. Miami doesn’t have a great defense to lean on, they’re not a committed running team (31st in attempts this year), so trying to play ball control won’t work…perhaps I’m overlooking something, but assuming Thompson starts, and at this point, it seems as he will, this is a playoff game in name only.
Look smart to your friends:
-Miami needs turnovers to have a chance, and in cornerback Xavien Howard’s only career playoff game, he had an interception and two passes defensed.
-Devin Singletary racked up a career-high 1,099 scrimmage yards this season, and in the process, joined Thurman Thomas as the only Bills players ever with 900+ scrimmage yards in each of their first four seasons.
The pick: Bills 34Dolphins 10
NY GIANTS (9-7-1) AT MINNESOTA (13-4) (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
TV: FOX LINE: Minnesota -3
Not that they let me vote on awards, but if I had a coach of the year vote, it would go to Brian Daboll without a second’s hesitation. Transforming a 4-13 team into a 9-win group is extremely impressive, particularly in light of the fact that the Giants’ personnel is largely the same as it was last year. Daboll has done a marvelous job bringing Daniel Jones along, and Saquon Barkley staying healthy has been a massive help. New York would normally be a one-and-done, but…they’re playing a 13-win team with a minus-3 point differential. I won’t bore you with all the advanced metrics, but some stats suggest that the Vikings are closer to one of the five worst teams in the league than anything else. Minnesota can’t defend the pass, which might not hurt them that much in this game, but they also can’t defend the run, which is a bigger problem. Assuming a very loud crowd doesn’t rattle Daniel Jones, and since he just played a close game in Minneapolis, it shouldn’t, there is every reason to believe that this game will be close right until the end. It makes more sense to take Minnesota, because they do have the better quarterback, and they are at home, and they have more weapons, but…
Look smart to your friends:
-It’s a good bet that Jones’ legs will be a factor in this game, one way or another. He had a career-high 708 rushing yards – fifth-most among quarterbacks this year – and a career-high seven rushing touchdowns.
-T.J. Hockenson could be huge for Minnesota in this game; when the teams met in Week 16, he had 13 catches for 109 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
The pick: Vikings 24 Giants 23
BALTIMORE (10-7) AT CINCINNATI (12-4) (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
TV: NBC LINE: Cincinnati -9.5
Here’s another game, just like Miami and Buffalo. It’s bad enough for the Ravens that the Bengals – specifically Joe Burrow – look like they’re peaking at the right time, and it’s considerably worse that Anthony Brown might have to start at quarterback. If Lamar Jackson were under center and at full strength, the Ravens would have every reason to believe they could compete in and win this game. But Jackson isn’t walking through that door unless he channels Willis Reed, and Tyler Huntley, already not a great backup option, is nursing an injured throwing shoulder. Baltimore’s running game could presumably get going, regardless of their quarterback situation, but it would require perfect execution on almost every single play. Baltimore’s defense might be able to hang in against Burrow for a while, but not for the entire game. If Cincinnati gets to 20 points, and they haven’t been held below that total since Halloween against the Browns, they’ll probably win the game. This game should be more competitive than Bills-Dolphins, but not by much.
Look smart to your friends:
-With Jackson almost certainly missing this game, the Ravens will lean on their “traditional” running game even more than normal. Baltimore was second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (160) and third in rushing yards allowed per game (92.1).
-Ja’Marr Chase is looking to follow up his monster rookie postseason. He had 368 receiving yards in last year’s playoff run, the most ever by a rookie in a single postseason.
The pick: Bengals 26Ravens 13
DALLAS (12-5) AT TAMPA BAY (8-9) (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
TV: ESPN LINE: Dallas -2.5
This is not a complicated game to figure out. The Cowboys pressure opposing quarterbacks better than any team in the league, and few teams are worse at pass blocking than the Buccaneers. Tom Brady, as a result, got the ball out faster on average than every quarterback in the league. Brady is going to have to stand in and make throws to win this game occasionally, and his line is going to have to play better. Tampa Bay’s defense has been on an uptick of late, and they’ve managed to force seven turnovers in the last three weeks, including six in consecutive wins against the Cardinals and Panthers, so the Buccaneers come in somewhat frisky despite their losing record. The Bucs’ Week 1 victory really doesn’t mean much here; the Cowboys are certainly the better team on paper, but despite the adversity, they overcame this year, you get the sense that they’re facing plenty of pressure. Mike McCarthy might even be coaching for his job. The winning formula for the Bucs is pretty clear: Mike Evans and Brady continue to thrive after rekindling their connection, and Dak Prescott, who threw 15 interceptions this year, tosses a few more.
Look smart to your friends:
-Tampa Bay has some talented linebackers, but Dallas might have the antidote in the passing game. Tight end Dalton Schultz is one of just four tight ends with 50+ catches and 500+ receiving yards in each of the past three seasons.
-Chris Godwin joined Keyshawn Johnson as the only Tampa Bay players ever with 100+ catches in a single season. He’s also going for his ninth game in a row with 5+ catches and 50+ receiving yards.
The pick: Buccaneers 23 Cowboys 17
