Duck for cover. Mock draft season is here.
In its first mock draft of 2023, Football Outsiders has the Houston Texans selecting Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud first overall. That goes against the conventional wisdom that has Houston drafting 2021 Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young of Alabama.
In Football Outsiders’ assessment, Stroud is projected to be drafted first despite it being “hard to evaluate a quarterback who spent his entire collegiate career in a nearly ideal environment.”
The reasoning for selecting Stroud assumes Texans head coach Lovie Smith will be fired in the offseason and that Stroud is viewed as a safer bet than Young.
That line of thinking highlights the subjective nature of these mock drafts. They are more similar to a Rorschach test for those who do the mocking than it is a reflection of objectivity.
In the most recent mock draft by CBS Sports, for example, Young is projected to be picked first because he “is a safer option.”
Per ESPN’s Jordan Reid’s mock draft, Young will be drafted first overall as well.
Either side could be right, or neither. After all, no one anticipated the Texans selecting defensive end Mario Williams over running back Reggie Bush first overall in the 2006 NFL Draft, but that’s exactly what the team did.
Trying to get inside the minds of NFL front-office decision-makers is futile.
It’s almost as impossible to know what prospects will pan out and which ones will be out of the league in a year. That won’t stop the mock drafts from invading our news feeds over the next few months.
The NFL Draft industrial complex is in motion, and the pendulum won’t stop swinging until the draft begins April 27.
Seek immediate shelter.
