Geopolitics & Diplomacy
Somalia-Turkey Alliance Hardens Following Israeli Recognition of Somaliland
A high-stakes diplomatic rift has opened in the Horn of Africa after Israel became the first UN member state to recognize Somaliland’s independence on December 26, 2025. In a swift response, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul on December 30. Erdoğan condemned Israel’s move as “illegitimate and unacceptable,” reaffirming Turkey’s “unwavering support” for Somalia’s territorial integrity. Beyond rhetoric, the two leaders announced the establishment of a Turkish spaceport in Somalia and upcoming deep-sea drilling operations by Turkish vessels off the Somali coast slated for 2026. Saudi Arabia has joined the condemnation, signaling a rare moment of alignment between Ankara and Riyadh in support of Mogadishu.
Gulf Rupture: UAE Withdraws from Yemen After Saudi Ultimatum
The decade-long Saudi-Emirati coalition in Yemen has effectively collapsed. On December 30, the UAE Ministry of Defense announced the voluntary withdrawal of its remaining counterterrorism units from Yemen. The move follows a 24-hour ultimatum from Saudi Arabia after a Saudi-led coalition airstrike targeted the port of Mukalla, which Riyadh claimed was receiving UAE-linked weapons for southern separatists. This “strategic divorce” threatens to ignite a new civil war within the south between the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC).
Security & Conflict
Sudan: Frontlines Shift to El-Obeid as Famine Grips Kordofan
The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered a brutal new phase in Kordofan. Following the RSF’s capture of the strategic Heglig oilfield earlier this month, the paramilitary group has moved to besiege El-Obeid, a critical transport hub. UN High Commissioner Volker Türk warned that the region is “one or two steps” away from mass atrocities similar to those seen in Darfur. Meanwhile, SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, during a visit to Ankara, dismissed any political solution that does not involve a full RSF surrender, even as 25 million Sudanese face acute hunger.
Military Rule Stiffens Across the Sahel
Governance experts at the Centre for Policy Analysis warn that the persistence of military juntas in the Sahel is acting as a “recipe for violent extremism.” The erosion of constitutional order has reportedly pushed more youth into the ranks of militant groups as civic spaces shrink. This warning comes as Guinea’s junta leader, General Mamadi Doumbouya, was declared the winner of the presidential election on December 31 with 86.7% of the vote. The election, boycotted by major opposition parties, followed a new constitution that revoked the ban on military leaders running for office, cementing Doumbouya’s move from coup leader to seven-year term president.
Business & Economy
Rwanda Positions Nyakabingo as Global Tungsten Hub
Rwanda is aggressively scaling its mining sector to distance itself from “conflict mineral” labels. Trinity Metals announced a $100 million investment to modernize its operations, particularly at the Nyakabingo mine—the largest tungsten mine in Africa. This follows the first-ever direct shipment of Rwandan tungsten concentrate to the United States in October 2025. By 2027, the mine aims to triple its output to 3,000 tonnes annually. While Kigali faces ongoing accusations from the DRC regarding smuggled minerals, these “global scale” industrial mines are intended to provide a transparent, conflict-free supply chain for the US defense and tech industries.
Human Rights & Civil Liberties
Uganda: Pre-Election Crackdown Intensifies
Ahead of the January 15 general election, Ugandan security forces have detained prominent rights activist Sarah Bireete. Bireete, head of the Centre for Constitutional Governance, was taken into custody on December 30 following her vocal criticism of alleged state-sanctioned torture. This detention follows a UN report citing that at least 550 supporters of opposition leader Bobi Wine have been detained this year. Bobi Wine himself has reported being beaten by security forces during campaigns in the north, as 81-year-old Yoweri Museveni seeks to extend his 40-year rule.
Sports & Culture
AFCON 2025: Senegal and Congo Advance to Knockout Stages
In sports, Senegal and Congo have secured convincing wins to move into the Africa Cup of Nations last 16. Senegal, the 2021 champions, defeated Benin 3-0 despite losing captain Kalidou Koulibaly to a red card. Meanwhile, Tanzania and Tunisia squeezed into the knockout stages following a tense 1-1 draw that eliminated Angola.
Afrobeats Global Domination Continues
As 2025 concludes, Afrobeats remains the continent’s most potent cultural export. While established giants like Burna Boy and Tems continue to chart globally, 2025 has seen the “meteoric rise” of new talents like Shallipopi and Ayra Starr, whose collaborations with top international artists have cemented the genre’s status as a mainstay in the global music industry.
