For weeks, Ukrainian officials have expressed concern that Russian forces could use neighboring Belarus as a launchpad for a new ground offensive, with Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, a potential target. A rare visit by President Vladimir V. Putin this week to Belarus to meet with his closest regional ally, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, amplified those concerns. Mr. Lukashenko, in turn, traveled to Russia on Saturday, state media reported.
But the director of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said in an interview with The New York Times on Friday that, while the possibility could not be entirely ruled out, a recent flurry of Russian military activity in Belarus was an attempt by Moscow to trick Ukraine into diverting soldiers from the active front line in the southeast of the country.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, also said in its latest report that there was no evidence that Russia was preparing a strike force in Belarus, and that a renewed invasion from the country was “unlikely” this winter.
Russian forces have “been much more clearly setting conditions for an offensive” in the northwestern part of the Luhansk region, the institute said, citing increased transport of Russian military equipment and personnel to the area.
As Ukrainian officials warned of further strikes, the country was still grappling with the devastation caused by the most recent barrages of missiles.
Ukrenergo, the national electric utility, said on Saturday in a Facebook post that “significant” electricity shortages persisted, with the Kyiv region experiencing the greatest difficulties as a result of Russian attacks on Dec. 19. Those strikes hit a critical piece of infrastructure, and Ukraine’s utilities have been instituting longer and more unpredictable power outages to keep the grid stable.
Ukrainians have grown increasingly frustrated by the weeks of power outages and months of hardship as freezing weather sets in. But they have also adapted: In Kyiv, stationary bikes were powering the lights on some Christmas trees amid the rolling blackouts.
Andrew E. Kramer contributed reporting.
